Fighters with the Best Chance of Beating Chad Dawson

In order, from best chance to slimmest:

1. Kelly Pavlik

Undefeated Middleweight champion, now fighting as a Lightheavyweight against Hopkins in his next fight. I actually feel Pavlik is a bit overrated on these boards (he is a very good fighter, not great, IMO). However, stylistically he is a very tough fight for Dawson. Pavlik has a killer straight right (the shot that has hurt Dawson in the past) and the stamina and skills to land it late in a fight. He is also an excellent finisher with decent handspeed. On the other hand, he is rather predictable and does not have elite level boxing skills, which Dawson possesses; the strengths of both fighters seem to be the others' achilles heel.

This is a pick'em fight, IMO.


2. Joe Calzaghe

Undefeated Supermiddleweight champion, who has seemingly gone on a hugely disappointing seniors' tour at 175 lbs. Calzaghe is the only fighter in this weight range who has a realistic chance of decisioning Dawson, due to his volume punching and pressure tactics. He does not possess the power to KO Dawson however, so he would have to beat Chad the very, very hard way. This is a very interesting southpaw vs southpaw clash, that may never come to fruition.

Dawson would be a slight favourite here, IMO.


3. Antonio Tarver

Old, ugly, and very outspoken, the man known as 'Suckalips' is seemingly getting into Chad's head prior to their Saturday night showdown. Tarver gasses later on in his fights, and never really had a prime (he beat Roy at nearly 36 years of age, losing to Harding at 31). He is very inconsistent and tends to wilt under intelligent pressure. However, he still has elite level skills for the first 6 rounds of a fight, is great at playing mind games, and most importantly, has true one-punch KO power...which is Dawson's biggest weakness. There are other Lightheavies that hit harder, but Tarver has a great skill-to power package which gives him a good chance to knock Dawson out...but he only has 6-8 rounds to work with, after that his chances are slim to none, due to his atrocious stamina.

Dawson is a favourite to win this fight.


4. Adrian Diaconu

The last thing this forum needs is more fuel to the Diaconu fire. Diaconu is a short, stocky LHW with average speed and below average boxing skills. Some say he is a white Jeff Lacy. I say probably, but he does have one-shot power and a truly killer instinct when he manages to hurt a fighter. He also has all of Romania at his back. His weaknesses are his short stature, penetrable defence, and weak stamina (which almost lost him his fight with Henry).

Dawson would be a significant favourite here, IMO.


5. Glen Johnson

Great pressure and stamina, a good chin, and a no-nonsense attitude is what the 'Road Warrior' brings to the table. His stamina and intelligent pressure almost won the Dawson fight for him. He managed to hurt Chad, but unfortunately, Glen's flaw was in his punching power: unlike Adamek, he could not make Chad hit the canvas. Unlike Adamek, he does not have the power to finish Chad Dawson, on the rare occasions which he manages to hurt him, without landing two or three consecutive 'money punches' (fat chance). Glen fought the perfect fight last time, and it was not enough. Next time, he will not fight the perfect fight, will be a year older, and it definitely won't be enough.

Dawson would be a significant favourite here, IMO.


6. Zsolt Erdei

A great, slick technician from Hungary, who has been fed stiffs since his fight with Gonzalez for Dariusz Michalczweski's Linear Lightheavyweight championship in 2004. Erdei had a good chance against Dawson and Adamek 2 years ago, but his management have squandered that opportunity. Older, slower, seemingly unmotivated, and lacking one-punch power, Erdei's chances against Dawson at a neutral venue are diminishing fast.

Dawson would be a significant favourite here, IMO.



Fighters with less than a 10% chance (in no order):

Jeff Lacy (shot)
Jermain Taylor (size disadvantage, 'The Pavlik Effect')
Lucian Bute (lacks one-punch power, too inexperienced)
Hugo Garay (lacks one-punch power, lacks overall boxing ability)
Mikkel Kessler (lacks one-punch power, too robotic/predictable)
Edison Miranda ('The Pavlik Effect')
Arthur Abraham (natural Middleweight, height/reach/size disadvantages)
Roy Jones Jr. (shot)



*Note: Fighters at Cruiserweight (Flores, Cunningham, Adamek, etc) and above have not been included.



Personally, I believe that today, Dawson would have an edge against all the aforementioned fighters, but I would not be surprised if any of the top 3 mentioned managed to beat him convincingly.

 

Bernard Hopkins would squeeze in between Erdei and the 'less than 10%" category, IMO.