i dont think pavlik would have a chance tbh. not more than a 30% chance anyway. he hits hard at middle but we do not know how his power will carry up and i think there are smw's who hit harder. JC is the only one i can see winning
Excellent analysis and I agree with all points. I really don't think there's a boxer 175 and down that can beat Dawson. If he gets by Tarver his chin issues will be in the past against a legit puncher. Calzaghe IMO gives him the most problems stylistically because of his activity and ring IQ but even with that I'd still lean towards Dawson. With that said on saturday night we'll find out a lot about Dawson and if he's ready to take that next step to the P4P elite.
This is not a chart of merit or ability, it's a listing of which fighters in particular are the most likely to beat Chad Dawson. Remember, styles make fights.
My opinion is that this is a good list, well argued, but that you underrate the chances of big SMWs like Kessler and Bute, for example. You say they lack the power to take Dawson down. I think they would have enough power to hurt him, because one thing's for sure, they would get the chance to hit him. Whether he could make it through the fight is a different matter, but hurt him, I think they could. Personally, I'd have Kessler as favourite over him, because he would break him down and in a fire-fight, would hurt him. Bute, I'd have as a 40/60 underdog against, mainly because of styles. Don't forget that Bute and Kessler would outweigh Dawson on the night by at 10-15 pounds, depending on whether the fight was at SMW or at LHW. (Dawson fights at 175 at LHW; Bute and Kessler weigh in as much as 183 lbs at SMW, on the night)
Very good thread title and topic to discuss. But your thoughts and ratings are insane, dude. Calzaghe and Kessler are the only ones to really make trouble for Dawson. Tarver should be easy for Dawson and Diaconu is too ****in slow. But Johnson could beat him.
Oh - I forgot Abraham. He could make a win by KO. His style is allright against Dawson as well. Dawsons chin is doubtfull.
Dawson keeps himself in better shape in between fights--ala Hopkins and Mayweather--than Kessler or Bute do. He is naturally the bigger man IMO. I would put both Kessler and Bute's power a hair below that of Glen Johnson--thay have enough power to buzz Dawson, but not enough to put him down or into serious trouble. That is why even in a firefight, I would give Dawson the edge. Bute vs Dawson now would IMO be a clear UD for Chad. In a year or two, I would give Lucian a better chance than I give Kessler right now. The big question for me is how is Lucian going to perform vs fellow tactical southpaws? His chin is good and his power decent at 168 (but not enough to crack Chad's chin IMO). In terms of Dawson vs Kessler, I can virtually guarantee (having watched plenty of both fighters) that a Dawson vs kessler fight would be a tactical affair. Both are relatively cautious fighters who fight off the backfoot. Dawson is the superior technician and has better boxing skills, not to mention the southpaw stance which Kessler has had major problems with.
To each their own. :good You underrate Pavlik's chances, IMO. As for Kessler, I wait with great anticipation for the second fight of his career in which he is viewed as the underdog. The first one did not go too well.
You do know that Bute started out at LHW and Dawson at MW rigtht?And besides you are the guy who says Dawson is the best in the world:rofl
Jeeeezzz dude. Kessler have only ever had problems in ONE fight - Calzaghe. He has dominated ALL other opponents. Kessler and Dawson have equal technique but I consider Keslers defence to be slightly better. Kessler is ****in awfull bad managed. But he is a beast in the ring. Dawson better technician and boxing skill??? Hell no. They are different fighters and box from a different stance etc. Thats all.
I agree with everything except the following: Bute and Kessler are not smaller than Dawson, and this is not because they don't keep in shape. Look at Bute on a fightnight and tell me he carried extra fat. He comes in at 183 lbs. Same goes for Kessler. Secondly, when you talk about Dawson and tactical fight, remember that he isn't able to stick to a gameplan and that he lets his heart get the better of him, dragging him into a toe to toe fight. This is why Kessler has a big advantage. I also think you overrate his chin quite a bit. Not only doesn't he take one hard punch well, but accumulation seems to really get to him. Again, Kessler would have a big advantage here, once he broke him down. IMO.