I have a feeling there'll be a few other final polls by fight time, but I voted Pac by TKO by round 10.
By my perceived likelihoods: Pac by decision: 50% Margarito by knockout: 25% Pac by knockout: 10% Margarito by decision: 10% Draw or DQ/TD for either man: 4% Adamek parachutes down with a ****ing fan on his back as a prank and accidentally knocks out both for a No Decision ending: A solid 1% This content is protected So, I consider Pac by decision the most likely against a pretty live underdog.
Margo looks Mentaly focused and phisicaly ready. Pac doesn't run or clinch in fights even when he's getting rocked. I know he will look good for the first half of the fight, but in the second half when Margo turns up the pressure Manny will start taking more and more shots. Margo has a good uppercut, and looking at the Clottey fight (against Manny), Clottey found success when throwing it. I just can't bring myself to believe that Pacquiao, as great as he is, can stop Margo. Specialy after coming in at 144.6. I admit he keeps proving me wrong (except for the Hatton fight, Ricky was tailor made for Pac). If Manny was a safty first fighter like Mayweather, I can see him taking the UD. But since he's not that type of a fighter, I see him getting caught against the rope one time too many and forcing Roach to stop the fight to allow his fighter to battle another day. I think this time Pac has bitten off mare than he can chew. Roach throws the towel in the 10th or 11th.
Interesting. I'd probably have the Pac KO a fair bit higher, but it's roughly in line with sounding reasonable. Apart from the Adamek bit. We all know it would be Pong if it happened.
:good - Great comment. I don't necessarily agree with it, but it's well reasoned. The only possible hole in the logic is that I think that, ever since Pac (or whomever) decided to stay a bit lighter and go the speed route, they might well go a bit more safety-first. Not Mayweather-style 'sweet science', but more the way he fought at the lighter weights: Quick bursts; in-and-out; angles. If he has the mental discipline, endurance and ability to stick to Roach's gameplan, then I can see the decision. The main hole in that argument is that he may not. Pac is Pac and plays to his own rhythm. We saw in the Cotto fight how he went to the ropes just to see what it was like, and when he tried the double punch versus Clottey. Both of those could have back-fired in other circumstances (but obviously didn't).
That's what I'm thinking Hagler. Pac will try to more safety first but once he get hit, he'll try and retaliate like he usually does. I will be very impressed If he can be that disciplined and stay saftey first throught the whole fight even when it's getting tough. He's a natural fighter.