~ FiNAL VOTE ~ Hopkins v. Pavlik ~ Vote here if you've changed your mind ~

Here are some things I think are true about this fight.

1 - Calzaghe kept the pressure on Hopkins with world class footwork and an unconventional style. Because Joe doesn't need to get "set" like most pro's, in terms of balance, he was able to rush back to Hopkins space after a feint a punch or some nice moves on Bernard's part. Pavlik doesn't have that.

2 - Pavlik will place Hopkins under pressure mainly with punching. This will provide serious countering opportunities for Hopkins. Avoiding this was the reason Joe reduced his punch output for this fight. As Steward observed in commentary during the fight, "I've never seen Bernard put under this type of pressure and he's finding it hard to time Calzaghe now". It's not a popular opinion, but Joe took The Executioner to a split decision figthing what I beleive to be a perfect fight from rounds four onwards.

3 - Making angles for his best punches, especially the right down the pipe, and getting himself out of harms way with the minimum of economy are crucial to Hopkins now. They are the main thing. I personally don't think the first will be difficult for such an accurate puncher against a fighter who is a little too direct for my liking. The second one, the Hopkins economy and how he is able to manage it, may be the most crucial factor in this fight.

How will Pavlik's workrate translate itself? Into a hard won advantage based upon points won through aggression and pressure? Or just provide countering opportunities his opponent? What concerns me is that Pavlik, though technically sound in terms of hand positioning, is not a great parryer of punches - he's not fast to adjust his hand positioning. I think Hopkins can take advantage of that.

If Hopkins controls the pace of the fight, he will win rounds. That's what I expect to happen at the start of this fight. Hopkins will put together a decent lead. The question - can he win five of the first six rounds? Because that's a mountain to climb. I think if Pavlik is still in the fight after 8 he will win because he has no fear. I think he will throw caution to the wind and all out attack Bernard Hopkins - something nobody has been able to do with any real success - in the later rounds, looking for the KO and not getting it. But dominating the end of the fight by just enough to take a close but close to inarguble decision over Hopkins.

But for those of you who think this won't be close?

It will be.

 

I voted Pavlik by 2-3 points in the poll, which is what I expect to see on my card.