Dawson has to back Hopkins up and keep the pressure, not let hopkins think. If he tries to out think him he will get schooled
I think Dawson will win it as long as he doesn't take one of his long holidays a few rounds into the fight.
Even if Dawson backs Bernard and keeps up the pressure, he still gat to hit him clean and effectively and Hopkins is not the sort of guy to use turtle defensive stances, right in front of you and let him download salvos of punches down the middle, downstairs and upstairs. Hopkins eventually will present only a side and if Dawson comes in with a right hook to the body, he can be punched back with a right upstairs as Hopkins moves swiftly on his back legs and outa there, along the ropes. It is as much a bad style matchup for Chad as it is supposedly for Hopkins. But Hopkins loves to dig deep and unsolve puzzles and build a puzzle that Chad definitely doesn't have the experience to solve, specially if he is hit solid enough in the chin. I don't think that it will take long for Nard to put on the puzzle that will surely last twelve rounds cause he already trained according to the first contact with Dawson. So bottom line is Hopkins tryin to rest in the mid of this high pressure and fast pace imposed by Dawson. I tell you that ultimately that is going to get Dawson as tired as Hopkins and both will be opening their mouths for that last breath in the Championship rounds and who wants it the most and I believe Bernard wants to beat this guy very, very badly, this is no fight to make some money, Bernard really wants to prove something to the general public but specially to Dawson.
The problem here is based on the Adamek fight and the fact that judges r looking foremost for clean effective punching. Do you realize that Adamek lost at least the first 7 rounds just cause he tried to put Dawson on the defensive with a left jab. And Adamek kept his left foot outside of Dawson's right foot to throw something like you r supposed to do... The problem is divided in two parts: first is that all that polished boxing and impact that speed plus accuracy Dawson gets is based on the fact that he puts all the weight on the back foot and unleashes punches without getting outa balance like Floyd Mayweather Jr does and Floyd Sr was his trainer back then, secondly if you lead with jabs against this natural righthander or lefty, how you want to call it, is that he fakes with the jab cause he wants to hit you straight out of defensive position with a str8 left and so you have to do the opposite, make him lead, faking his jab and pushing his punches and you counter with rights down the pipe first. Now and again, Bernard can't just remain on the ropes like against Winky cause this guy combines clean and effective right hooks to the side of the body to open up a space to throw that left hand to the head so he definitely must keep his left hand down and keep his head and chin behind his left shoulder, rotating with the back foot away. It seems hard but Hopkins has a lot of experience and since this has become a real challenge, I think he can surprise this guy, specially if he gets him with his guard down for a second and throws that str8 right fast like Adamek did just b4 Buddy McGirt was about to stop the fight and creates that impact that will block Dawson mentally and very, very early on, that would really suit Hopkins to fight in a more relaxed way throughout.