Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Miguel Angel Cotto - THE numero uno official ESB poll

Very good analysis. I agree that Floyd's stock defensive reactions can be somewhat routinized and predictable in a way that a savvy operator with good timing could exploit if they had the exact right punch in mind and executed at just the right moment. For me it always seemed not so much about getting him while pulling straight back, though (as his head movement, vision, and reaction time are all just so damn good) - but more a matter of catching Floyd when he leans over to his right to avoid the straight cross of an orthodox opponent. It seems that a left hook with an upward arc could catch him in a poor state of balance doubled over awkwardly like that. I don't think I can recall ever seeing anyone intentionally miss a straight right to the head to goad him into leaning and then springing the trap with the low left hook anticipating where his head will be. It's always struck me as sort of obvious to any opponent who's seen a lot of tape on PBF, and would be certainly my hail-mary tactic if ever in the ring with him.

Agree that Cotto needs to completely empty out his toolbelt to make a persuasive argument for himself to earn rounds and not think he can just win a straight-up jabbing contest with Mayweather, who is a better mover and longer of limb and can outjab the best of them when of a mind to do so...despite not often being of such mind. Rushing attacks, rhythm breaking, and stepping on Mayweather's toes figuratively speaking by interrupting his leads by punching with him in combination - these are all ways to secure himself a share of at least a few rounds, especially during the slow starting phase.

Also agree that Cotto will probably give him the most difficulty since DLH (far more than the "difficulty" many perceive Ortiz as having given him). Cotto does a lot of the exact same things well as De La Hoya, actually.

Having said all that, I just don't give Cotto much of a chance here. Speed kills, and it killed him against Pacquiao (and for a few rounds against Judah, who isn't even necessarily faster than Mayweather and is far less intelligent and diverse in his skillset). This isn't Malignaggi whose balls are bigger than his brains, either. It's one of the smartest boxing minds around.

 

Based on those numbers, Cotto still threw at a 55% rate in power punches as compared to Mayorga at 41%.

Cotto also landed his jab at 4x the rate Mayorga did (44% as compared to 11%).

Overall:

Cotto 49%
Mayorga 34%

That is one half against one third.

(pretty much par for the course when talking about Mayorga. His ring name may be El Matador but he isn't exactly elusive...and his ring name certainly isn't William Tell. He rarely wins accuracy contests. With him the goal is in fact the exact opposite of efficiency; it's about the law of averages, winging as many powerful haymakers as he can in the hopes that one can check his opponent's chin. Power & volume are his keys to victory; not percentages).

I'd not expect Cotto to approach anywhere near 49% against Mayweather. Halving that would be a major accomplishment in itself, actually.

Poor urine-bloated Marquez - renowned as a precise and surgical technician - only managed a pitiful total of 12% against Mayweather.

Oscar De La Hoya, to whom Cotto has been favorably compared and who might be the closest recent stylistic match to Cotto among recent Mayweather opponents? 21%.

Ricky Hatton - 17%.

SSM - 20%

Ortiz supposedly connected 32% (weighted heavily by a patently false 40% in power punches) but I'm not so sure about that. The CompuBox operators may have been awarding credit for punches that were thrown with vigor in close quarters but hit elbow or air, IMO. I'll chalk that one up to human error and assume it was actually somewhere down in the low twenties.

 

FWIW:


Zab Judah landed 18% against Mayweather, while getting hit with 47%.

Against Cotto he landed eleven percent more (29%) and got hit with a bit less, although not by all that much (43%).

:deal

 

:good It would please me greatly to be wrong about this. :yep

(just as it would to be wrong about Pacquiao vs. Bradley. In an ideal world, both "mega stars" lose and casual fans are left scratching their heads wondering wtf to pretend to know about the sport now...)

 

:nono Prime Cotto had less of a chance against his contemporary PBF (as that happens to be right around the time their 140lb campaigns overlapped, 2004-2005) than does current light middleweight Cotto against current Mayweather.


04'-'05 @ LWW - Mayweather sparks Cotto clean out. Seriously.

'07-'09 @ WW - Mayweather 119-109 Cotto

'12 @ LMW - Mayweather late TKO.