Forrest Griffin is getting his Glass Jaw Shattered...

....if Rua lands flush. I'm not making an ironclad prediction because of the variables involving Rua after multiple surgeries leaving him with MacGyver'd knees and that last beating that very well could have left him a shot fighter. HOWEVER, if Rua doesn't allow Griffin to use his size to press him against the cage or hold him down to tire him, he will shatter that Fragile Glass Mandible that Griffin is packing.

The gulf in class is extremely wide, the gulf in physical ability is as well, and Griffin's only advantage is size, so I imagine midways through the second round one of those overhand rights will come over Griffin's pawing jab and we'll be seeing him crawling around the ring and crying over the sea of shattered glass and broken dreams.

 

No, Griffin doesn't have better Jiu-Jitsu or at least he hasn't shown it in the Octagon. People rate his BJJ so highly because the talk is that he's a monster on the mat in the gym. In his fights we've seen him mount Rampage and do zero damage from the position and we've seen him get mauled from his horribly sloppy guard. Shogun is much more fluid positionally, has a far better defensive guard and sweeps, and he actually ****s dudes up from top position.

His wrestling isn't better either and I would rate them equal in that category. When they fought they were trading takedowns equally until Shogun gassed and then Griffin took over. Neither has a good shot, both of them rely on trips from the clinch, and both have porous takedown defense. Griffin's best advantage comes from the fact that Shogun's gas tank is iffy and he's big enough to wear him out if he can put him on the cage.

Griffin can win by making it an ugly fight like he generally does and having Shogun show up looking like the undead again. If the latter condition isn't met, Griffin is going to be flying out of the cage in his typical crybaby fashion.

 

They took each other down at will in the first round, neither is the superior takedown artist.

 

Neither one of them has improved their wrestling. They both have a bodylock trip for their takedown arsenal and that's about it.