Francisco Santana vs. Randall Bailey on 2015 FNF season premiere

This will be the co-feature of the first televised boxing card of the year, headlined by Darleys Perez's 2nd defense of his interim WBA title against Jonathan Maicelo in a battle of arguably the #1 p4p Colombian and Peruvian, respectively)

This one is possibly every bit as intriguing and evenly matched (given Bailey's age; in his prime he probably knocks Santana out cold early) as the main event, if lower-stakes - just a 10-rounder, but a crossroads meeting with both men needing triumph for their career's sake.

Bailey has been clinging tenaciously - but tenuously - onto his position on contention's outskirts. A loss here - making for two of his last three outings, stretching back for over two years - pretty much spells the end of the 40-year-old's chances to ice his legacy's cake with a third world title acquisition. If he ices Santana, however, it nudges him toward a shot while doing so on national TV keeps his name fresh and reminds higher-ranked boxers that his name is out there, perhaps looming temptingly as "low hanging fruit" if they have enough faith in their defense and/or whiskers.

As for Chia Santana, he put in a lot of work since 2011 repairing the damage of the preceding three years having altered him from prospect to borderline gatekeeper (with a pair of losses to Mayfield, one by stoppage, and one to a Charlo bro, and the draw with J-Rock serving as setbacks in avalanche fashion one after the other). His momentum picking up wins over Alcine, Hernandez, and Gomez could really start to snowball into something meaningful if he adds Bailey's name.

Neither is ranked in any of the four major organization's top 15 (Santana is WBC #22) but the winner is probably close to cracking at least one.

Their styles juxtapose and contrast in what ought to be a fan-friendly way, too. Bailey has the huge edge in power, while Santana is long and strong with a very high work rate.

 

Yeah, I favor Pérez too. There are some interesting parallels between them, however. Each padded up their record initially at home in their country in South America, then came up here to pick up a solid W in their US television debut (Pérez over Baha Mamadjanov on FNF; Maicelo over Daniel Attah on ShoBox) and then suffered their first defeat soon after on American soil (though Pérez's was to a much higher caliber talent in Gamboa than Maicelo was thwarted by in Nugaev) and both have since put together a nice run to rebound.

Neither is a big puncher, both have decent skills with a bit of flash, either can be hurt though neither has much worse than average punch resistance, and the tale of the tape (height, reach, and even age) is a dead heat.

 

I feel like Bailey's pop ought to be sufficient to change the game if he lands big just once. (Karim Mayfield didn't kayo Santana cold with any single blow, forcing him to a knee with repeated overhand rights and body shots and then flurrying on him until the ref intervened - but that is Mayfield's thing, and Bailey packs far more of a wallop)

I'm just not sure if he is too shy at 40 to pull trigger enough anymore, especially with how much leather Santana is going to be chucking his way. :think

Bailey on points or Santana by KO would surprise me, but the inverse results are 50-50.