Frochs beard might actually work against him in this fight, i can see him taking flush shots for too long in the fight before he gets KO'd, id say about 6 or 7 rounds ... which considering Froch's abysmal defense is a lot of shots.
It's a funny situation, but I think Froch has a good chance against Bute with his relentless style. At the same time I think Bute has a good chance against AA if he fights smart the whole 12 rounds. But I think AA beats Froch. Bute > AA Froch > Bute AA > Froch A clear example of A beats B who beats C, but C may beat A.
Everything you have said is true, but you haven't said everything. Like Taylor, Abraham can do more than what he usually does. The question is will he do it? We know is advance what Pavlik is most likely to do since he has a clear record of consistency. The mercurial Abraham could surprise us, and that is certainly not a low probability.
Bute is underrated he can handle both Froch and AA. Bute has very good power, 24 wins 19 by knockout, and he boxes extremely well, good skills and fundamentals.