Wlads chin wasn't A1, but it was realistically good enough for Fury's okay power (as in Wilder 2)... Likely Wlad would beat Wilder 2 Fury - that Fury was so much easier to hit that Wlads superior power would probably swing it. Wilder 3 Fury would get knocked out - nobody could turn up in that horrible condition against even old Wlad and win.
Wlad would have probably lost. People who disregard age thought he might win, and some people who gave Fury no chance, and it must have been a "fluke". But really, he was just old and past it, didn't look good against Jennings, and couldn't beat AJ either. Wlad was turning 40, he would not have won the rematch. It's not logical. Fury deserves to be down-graded to a ' bum champion' for his 3 year hiatus and coming back to face Sefer Seferi. But I don't think "he would likely to have lost to Wlad in rematch" holds much weight. Fury's issues were based on other things, not fear of a Wlad rematch. He was poorly promoted, he was unpopular in UK media, he was being overshadowed by AJ who had just picked up the IBF title they took from him, he was facing PED charges behind the scenes, he was sulky about all that, and choose to give it all up.
The problem is, people disregarding the possibility/probability of a fluke are making all kinds of assumptions of their own - which themselves are not logical... He'd still beaten gatekeeper Jennings comfortably and wide (rightly so) and Joshua went on to beat most of the relevant fighters at the top of the division - which was more than Fury did immediately afterwards. The simple fact of the matter is there are valid and understandable arguments for both eventualities... And THAT is precisely why a rematch WAS needed. IF Fury won it, against a Wlad who looked better prepared and more interested then it would remove any possible argument about flukes... If Wlad won comfortably, it'd lend weight to the idea that it was just another avenged fluke, which the history of heavyweight champions is rich with, as we all know. I think it holds a lot more weight than Fury being very likely to have won the rematch, and Wlad (not Fury) was the one who'd earned the benefit of the doubt... In some ways it wouldn't matter if this were all 100% fair comment (not that I necessarily agree with it)... It still only negates half the argument. Lets say it's all true and Fury was just FUBARd in the head, somewhat self inflicted... Wlad was still desperate for that rematch and wasn't ready to retire - that still suggests Wlad thought he'd win, and given their careers to date you can certainly see why.
By turning up to find an opponent who's nowhere near 100%? By fighting with an exceptionally low number of personal errors? Plenty of ways... And that's if we consider it a clear UD - a fairly clear win yes, but also shockingly poor fight.
Wlad is lucky an offence first 270 pound Fury didn't come for him He got the overly defensive stick and move Fury....and even by round 11 Wlad started to go wobbly from bieng tired even though he threw zero punches. Fury at his best could easily stop the big robot on attrition just as he did Wilder.