Fury is the superior boxer and operator, he would still be rusty and not at his best but he should still be good enough to deal with Wilder. But Wilder will always be in the fight from Round 1 to Round 12 because of his game changing right hand and explosive finishing windmill when he has someone hurt. Does Fury have it in him to fight the perfect fight? Does he have the chin and recuperative powers to deal with Wilder's Windmilling?
Fury has the better punch variety, footwork, and an excellent check hook, but is extremely vulnerable to counter rights. Wilder has better conditioning , ring awareness, and straight right, but his power can be neutralized with well timed check hooks.
Fury has fast, effective counter punching like Wilder has not faced yet, and when the fast handed counters are combined with Fury’s mobility and elusive upper body movement, he will be too much for Wilder to handle Fury to win in a very decisive tko- or a decision
TBH, if Ortiz could not Ko Wilder, don't think Fury can, Fury is just better off ruthlessly outboxing Wilder and getting away from that predictable right hand and not gas himself out. Wilder will take his chances and roll the dice when he notices the flight slipping away and Fury fighting the flawless fight.