Fury-Wilder 3 will be the easiest fight of Fury's career

Wilder's deterioration

1. He's been inactive just as long as Fury but with no fight on the horizon to focus on
2. He will be almost 36 by the time he fights and sustained serious wear and tear last time
3. He's been mentally crushed by Fury and without his delusional confidence he's half the fighter
4. He probably didn't even want the trilogy fight and was looking for a payoff but now has to fight Fury anyway

Fury's institutional advantages

1. As a fighter who's been brutally defeated (and made every excuse under the sun) Wilder's stock has fallen considerably, while Fury's de-facto home turf now is America
2. Fury has vastly more personality, is far more marketable in the States (anywhere in America outside Tuscaloosa, Fury is the bigger draw) is the superior fighter by a country mile and is still undefeated
3. Arum had reserved the Allegiant Stadium for Fury-Wilder 3 on July 24th, suggesting that he will have influence in determining the selection of officials. Wilder won't have such a favourable referee this time and the referee will know that Wilder's corner will not throw in the towel even if Wilder is being destroyed (as they would get fired) encouraging the referee to stop the fight even sooner than he would perhaps like to
4. Wilder only has a slim puncher's chance and must get the job done both before Fury does and within 12 rounds to win, putting even more pressure on Wilder to be artificially aggressive and thus easier to read and counter

The only potential banana skin

Overconfidence (not taking training seriously and not seeing Wilder as a serious threat) but I suspect that Fury will be highly motivated to destroy Wilder and send him into retirement given all of the laughable accusations and narratives that Wilder has made and pushed, as well as Wilder/Haymon's partial role in holding up the undisputed fight.

The reality of "Wilder 2.0"

Wilder's scripted combinations on the pads with the diver and yes-man Malik Scott will be of no benefit to Wilder whatsoever. At 36 years old it's much too late to learn the fundamentals of boxing and as soon as Wilder gets hit he will revert to type. It could be a mistake even trying to teach Wilder the basics, as attempting to adopt a more orthodox style for the first time in a huge fight will make Wilder uncomfortable, predictable and indecisive. Wilder's weight will be another problem: does he go in the same weight as last time when he got crushed? Does he gain weight and slow himself down? Or does he lose weight and make himself easier to bully, hurt and KO? Wilder may have just about managed to put himself back together again enough to contemplate getting back into a ring with Fury but as soon as he's in there and the bell rings for the first round he will start having flashbacks, which after the first round will turn into a full-blown panic attack.

Conclusion

The most likely outcome is that Fury takes Wilder out even faster than last time, maybe in 2-3 rounds. Hopefully though Fury will take his time to break Wilder down. Wilder won't be much use as a tune-up if Fury gets rid of him too quickly.

 

Fury's rough tactics are a constant feature, not a new factor for the trilogy. Punch-slaps are faster, have more reach and allow the aggressor to control the opponent's head in position while hitting with the other fist, generating an added shock effect. Fury is hardly the worst sinner in this respect: Andre Ward, Bernard Hopkins, Evander Holyfield, Marvin Hagler and Mohammed Ali were all very dirty but these are fights with high stakes. Fighters must defend themselves at all times and the most competitive will do whatever they need to in order to maximise their chances of victory. There are many more factors working against Wilder now than there were in Fury-Wilder 2, so I expect his defeat in the trilogy to be even more one-sided.

 

Overconfidence is the only possible banana skin because Wilder has tremendous power in the right hand when he is able to set his feet. He always has a puncher's chance that his opponents have to contend with.

 

Indeed, the weight difference was 42 lbs though if the weigh-ins are to be believed. 3 stone is an enormous difference and it may be even greater next time if Wilder decides he doesn't want to equal or exceed his career highest weight, which didn't give him any noticeable success last time.

Wilder's whole game has always been based around his confidence (shot) physicality (which he lacks against Fury) and a puncher's chance, which was always able to bail him out against the high level journeymen he fought in all of those title fights (with the exceptions of Stiverne 1 and Ortiz 1, who were better than journeymen) but predictably failed him against a near-prime, fit, motivated and far bigger man with superior boxing skills. I don't believe that Wilder has any adjustments he can make which can come close to overcoming that and it's much more likely that he will enter the ring a shot fighter than a significantly improved one.

 

If I said I was a Wilder fan or that he had a realistic chance against Fury I'd definitely get a payout; cast-iron evidence of dangerously low intelligence.