It's a hard one, because the fight is so different so hard to compare Fury's performance. Fury wasn't in the best shape in that fight because he did a fat camp to get down to that weight and later said he felt weak. Not sure he punched as hard in that version, not because of 'Kronk' but because he was drained of muscle. So maybe he doesn't hurt Usyk as much, but he should still be capable of some damage. In any case, he would have been faster than now so harder for Usyk to hit and Fury probably lands more because he would have somewhat faster hands. Brain also less damaged. From a boxing/points point of view Fury likely does better so maybe wins a close decision. One big difference in the fights is that Wlad barely threw and that's actually why Fury didn't throw much because he's a counterpuncher and said as much after the fight. Usyk was more active than Wlad and that's why Fury could counter and land more. Also wasn't as worried about huge power too. Point is, younger Fury definitely throws more against Usyk than Wlad.
While Usyk is 17 months older than Fury, he was just 32 months removed from his best heavyweight performance (Joshua 1). Fury by contrast was 102 months removed from his prime as a boxer-mover (Wlad), which included a 31 month hiatus where he ballooned up 10 stone in weight (and he never stopped overeating or snorting drugs, just reduced it). He was coming off a diabolical performance against an 0-0 MMA fighter going into Usyk 1. Fury's body visibly declined from Wlad to Wilder 1 to Wilder 3 to Ngannou independent of his body fat %. Given this context it's likely that Fury was further past his best than Usyk and the best version of him would have won.
Against Wlad: Fury was hungry to become world Champion. Since then Fury has turned that hunger towards binge eating, drugs and being a part time alcoholic. Earnt a tonne of money and lost his motivation. A hungry/motivated/cautious Fury from the Wlad fight beats Usyk up.