Gamblers Advisory: "Put Your Money on Pacquiao Over Thurman!" - I Disagree.

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by Beatle, Jul 6, 2019.


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  1. Beatle

    Beatle Sheer Analysis Full Member

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    Premise: I've made posts like this before confuting Richard Dwyer's predictions, and I've often turned out to be dead wrong.

    Dwyer here says that we should bet on Pacquiao because he has better speed than Thurman, who moreover has looked has looked vulnerable in the ring recently. While that is certainly true, I think Dwyer is neglecting the styles here. The only bet worth making is Keith to win.

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    Keith Thurman is the type of fighter that Dwyer categorizes as "adaptive-reactive", meaning that he adopts different strategies in different fights, depending on the style of the opponent he's facing. In other words, Thurman takes on an offensive style against certain opponents and a defensive style against others, and uses a combination of both against others yet.

    Against Pacquiao, I believe Thurman will use the same strategy that Erik Morales used in his first fight against Pacquiao (the only fight in the trilogy prior to which Freddie Roach didn't force Morales to weight-drain himself). Thurman is physically very similar to Morales and has fought in that style in many fights (especially his early ones). Another major factor is age: in this fight, we will see a 40-year-old Pacquiao fight an almost prime version of Thurman (which I believe will equate to the almost prime version of Morales who beat Pacquiao).

    I believe the arguments in favor of Keith Thurman outweigh those in favor of Manny Pacquiao, so if you want a third opinion from a complete stranger online, put your money on Keith! If Pacquiao makes it a close fight or wins it, then Dwyer will deserve huge props for that pre-fight analysis.

    In the second half of the video, Dwyer says that one of the best female boxing virtuosos of all time, Holly Holm, will be a walkover for Amanda Nunes, who has won all her major fights by outboxing her opponents. I think his brain has short-circuited for this pick. Holm has lost to a weight bully (Cyborg) and a few karate/wrestling prodigies, but she has never lost when the fight was purely a boxing affair (see the Rousey win). She is the better boxer here, and she has a great high kick that Nunes will have little defense for. Nunes has power but this time she will be in front of an opponent who can dodge her blows and strike back, whereas Nunes herself has poor head movement, so she'll be eating punches consistently. This is a big chance to make huge money. Forget the odds here. Remember, gamblers made the same irreverent mistake before the Rousey-Holm fight.

    If you disagree on my analyses, tell me exactly why.
     
    Beatle, Jul 6, 2019
    Beatle, Jul 6, 2019
    #1
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  2. jmashyaka

    jmashyaka Boxing Addict Full Member

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    Thurman is where my money is going, I don’t trust the guys pac has beaten, if Thurman can use his legs again he will outpoint manny who is just to long in the tooth now
     
    jmashyaka, Jul 6, 2019
    jmashyaka, Jul 6, 2019
    #2
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  3. Bridie mcmahon

    Bridie mcmahon Active Member banned Full Member

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    Interesting premise but let me just collapse the pocket and say..thanks for stopping by.
     
    Bridie mcmahon, Jul 6, 2019
    Bridie mcmahon, Jul 6, 2019
    #3
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  4. Beatle

    Beatle Sheer Analysis Full Member

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    Thurman is only 30 years old, so his legs will be great. He is not going to enter the ring with an ATG without being 100%.
     
    Beatle, Jul 6, 2019
    Beatle, Jul 6, 2019
    #4
  5. Beatle

    Beatle Sheer Analysis Full Member

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    lol
     
    Beatle, Jul 6, 2019
    Beatle, Jul 6, 2019
    #5
  6. Paranoid Android

    Paranoid Android Manny Pacquiao — The Thurmanator banned Full Member

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    Pacquiao will KO Thurman.
     
    Paranoid Android, Jul 6, 2019
    Paranoid Android, Jul 6, 2019
    #6
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  7. GK BOX

    GK BOX Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    Don’t see it happened my man
     
    GK BOX, Jul 6, 2019
    GK BOX, Jul 6, 2019
    #7
  8. UnleashtheFURY

    UnleashtheFURY D'oh! Full Member

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    And let me tell you something.
     
    UnleashtheFURY, Jul 6, 2019
    UnleashtheFURY, Jul 6, 2019
    #8
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  9. Dannymita

    Dannymita Boxing Addict Full Member

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    I'm gonna go pacman ko... I don't expect it but its nice odds wen thurman has a knack for looking vulnerable and getting hurt.. I know he's not China chinned but I've seen him hurt by soto karass, collazo and Lopez... All are worse than pacman.. Even at this age
     
    Dannymita, Jul 6, 2019
    Dannymita, Jul 6, 2019
    #9
  10. macademics

    macademics Active Member Full Member

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    Pacquaio looks much better in training compared to Keith Thruman. Plus Thurman has been talking real greasy about Pac - who seems more ticked off about Thurman's talk.

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    Thurman seems to be crusing through his workouts, especially his sparring clips. I think he is gonna be in for a very rude awakennig when Pac hits him with those volume combos.
     
    macademics, Jul 6, 2019
    macademics, Jul 6, 2019
    #10
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  11. YCGS

    YCGS Boxing Addict Full Member

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    I disagree on both of your picks.

    First off, I think Nunes is going to demolish Holly. You mention the Rousey fight as an indication of Holly succeeding in boxing matches but Rousey is soley a judo player. Her striking is laughable honestly. You also mention Holly losing to a weight bully in Cyborg...the same Cyborg that Nunes destroyed not even a year later. Holly is out of her prime and lost 4 of her last 6 fights. I don't even see this as competitive.

    Thurman has a better chance of beating Pac, although I don't think that happens either. Thurman has yet to even beat a B level fighter convincingly and has been hurt in several fights against fighters who don't pack much power. I also have a suspicion keith is going to try to hard to "arrive" to top level and I think he will underperform as a result. Pac is going to be Pac and that isn't going to change. Even at this stage I think what Pac brings is still too much for Thurman.
     
    YCGS, Jul 6, 2019
    YCGS, Jul 6, 2019
    #11
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  12. minemax

    minemax Boxing Addict Full Member

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    "Put Your Money on Pacquiao Over Thurman", "The only bet worth making is Keith to win", blah-blah-blah...
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    minemax, Jul 6, 2019
    minemax, Jul 6, 2019
    #12
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  13. POTUS

    POTUS Boxing Addict Full Member

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    Dwyer is the sharpest kid in the class I'm going with Dwyer. The man knows cognac and boxing if we win it's more bear for us
     
    POTUS, Jul 6, 2019
    POTUS, Jul 6, 2019
    #13
  14. DonnyMo

    DonnyMo Boxing Addict Full Member

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    In what world does Keith Thurman emulate Erik Morales???

    I like Keith Thurman, watch all his fights, think he hilarious too..... but there's a reason everyone knows him as "run time"

    Manny Pacquiao's biggest weakness is that he cannot cut off a ring very well at all. Knowing that why would Keith Thurman (who might have the best set of legs in boxing) go away from what he does and try to hold the center of the ring ala Erik Morales?

    He's going to make Pacquiao wonder aimlessly around the ring as he runs around everywhere and try to walk him into a Marquez IV bomb.

    Now if he doesn't land that bomb will the judges reward him ? Pac at this age I think will still have more moments than Garcia or Porter.
     
    DonnyMo, Jul 6, 2019
    DonnyMo, Jul 6, 2019
    #14
  15. Paranoid Android

    Paranoid Android Manny Pacquiao — The Thurmanator banned Full Member

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    I predicted that Matthysse and Broner would KO Pacquiao, guy. GUY.
     
    Paranoid Android, Jul 6, 2019
    Paranoid Android, Jul 6, 2019
    #15
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