Garcia vs. Haney: A Cautionary Tale Against Buying Into Groupthink Foregone Conclusion Narratives.

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by CST80, Apr 21, 2024.


  1. CST80

    CST80 De Omnibus Dubitandum Staff Member

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    Just like, aside from Garcia vs. Haney.... so far in the first 4 months of 2024 alone, they were spot on about...

    Seigo Yuri Akui vs. Artem Dalakian *
    Ramon Cardenas vs. Israel Rodriguez *
    Eduardo Nunez vs. Shavkat Rakhimov *
    Riku Masuda vs. Jonas Sultan *
    Jesus Perez vs. JoJo Diaz Jr. *
    Miguel Madueño vs. Justin Pauldo *
    Joseph Parker vs. Zhilei Zhang *
    Jairo Noriega vs. Azael Villar *
    Nicklaus Flaz vs. Luke Santamaria *
    Nicholas Walters vs. Joseph Adorno *
    Chris Kongo vs. Florian Marku *
    Sebastien Fundora vs. Tim Tszyu *
    Jackson Joe England vs. Jamel Herring *
    Ricardo Nunez vs. Pablo Vicente *
    Artem Suslenkov vs. Michael Hunter *
    Ralfs Vilcans vs. Shefat Isufi *
    David Jimenez vs. John Ramirez *
    Ismael Barroso vs. Ohara Davies
    Dario Morello vs. Luca Chiacone
    Jayson Vayson vs. Takeru Inoue
    Sivenathi Nontshinga vs. Adrien Curiel
    Daishi Nagata vs. Koki Inoue
    Sandy Messaoud vs. Meriton Karaxha
    Tsubasa Narai vs. Yuna Hara ^
    Thanongsak Simsri vs. Miel Fajardo ^
    Alexander Pavlov vs. Thomas Piccirillo ^
    Uisma Lima vs. Haro Matevosyan
    Melvin Jerusalem vs. Yudai Shigeoka ^
    James Flint vs. Campbell Hatton ^
    Endry Saavedra vs. Issac Hardman ^
    Owen Cooper vs. Eithan James
    Gianluca Ceglia vs. Frank Urquiaga
    Jaouad Belmehdi vs. Alfred Lamptey
    Raymond Ford vs. Otabek Kholmatov
    Ashlee Eales vs. Stanley Stannard
    Billy Allington vs. Mark Smither ^
    Julian Smith vs. Orestes Velazquez
    Rene Tellez Giron vs. George Acosta ^
    Miguel Esparza vs. Daniel Garcia
    Jackson Chauke vs. Quaise Khademi
    Keita Kurihara vs. Froilan Saludar

    ...right?o_O

    And with fair scoring..... these would've been massive upsets too.

    Starling Castillo vs. Jesus Saracho *
    Julio Cesar Martinez vs Angelino Cordova *
    Richardson Hitchins vs. Gustavo Daniel Lemos *
    Arnold Barboza Jr. vs. Sean McComb
    Teófimo López vs. Jamaine Ortíz *
    Natasha Jonas vs. Mikaela Mayer *

    Most bookies DKSAB, they just go with the safe picks, which tend to be the undefeated A-sides. There's no real science to what they do, they certainly aren't analyzing fighter's differing styles and how well or poorly they'll mesh with their upcoming opponents. They're groupthink lemmings, who if they had a real brain for the sport, would know stumbling blocks when they see them. Merely prompting people to think harder and critically more often, isn't unreasonable and certainly isn't too much to ask. Denigrating the mission statement of this thread, is kind of encouraging intellectual laziness.

    I have the benefit as someone who runs a Boxing League on here, to know just how many upsets there's been, and who's picked them. Most of the above upsets have been called by one or more of the smarter posters on here. The only ones that weren't called, I'll add a ^ denoting it. The asterisks denote the upsets above that I've called, and the upsets below I was robbed of.
     
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  2. lepinthehood

    lepinthehood When I'm drinking you leave me well alone banned Full Member

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    the only problem with betting on boxing is the odds on the outsider are usually very poor. because they do lack knowledge, the bookies save themselves millions with bad odds, also the bookies know how corrupt it is. not many people pick the draw, and people don't back themselves for a stunning early KO for the outsider, which can be good odds. one of the biggest odds ive seen and i missed the bet was Sam Eggington to lose against the unknown African at 33/1, it was worth backing just on those odds, and Sam Eggington did what he always does and hung his chin out to dry and the African wasnt paulie malinaggi and took him out.
     
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  3. steviebruno

    steviebruno ESB NYC Delegate banned Full Member

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    This is the longest "I told ya so" I have ever seen.

    I wonder how much money OP bet on the fight...
     
    Fogger likes this.
  4. CST80

    CST80 De Omnibus Dubitandum Staff Member

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    Without a doubt, picking an underdog and getting right, for the sole purpose of showing off your prowess when it comes to understanding the fight game is one thing. Betting actual money can be treacherous as hell, due to all of the robberies. But if you do get it right, my God, you could rake in a mountain of cash. It still pisses me off that I didn't put money on Joe Smith Jr. KOing Fonfara, I've never been so sure of a seemingly outlandish outsider pick to date, sometimes being such a stickler when it comes to eschewing vices is painful as ****.:lol:
     
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  5. CST80

    CST80 De Omnibus Dubitandum Staff Member

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    I'll make sure to rub it in thrice as hard in a thread dedicated to you if Gvozdyk pulls the upset and KO's Benavidez, like I think he will.
     
  6. steviebruno

    steviebruno ESB NYC Delegate banned Full Member

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    Fair play.

    But how much did you bet on Garcia?
     
  7. CST80

    CST80 De Omnibus Dubitandum Staff Member

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    Not a dime, I avoid all addictive vices like the plague. I don't drink, smoke, do drugs or gamble, I even restrict myself to one cup of coffee and one soda per day, and even stopped playing video games 15 years ago. I'm clearly a control freak.:lol: Although avoiding gambling is one of the bigger challenges for me.
     
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  8. steviebruno

    steviebruno ESB NYC Delegate banned Full Member

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    A man after my own heart...
     
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  9. Pepsi Dioxide

    Pepsi Dioxide Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    Its the constant battle when picking upsets of "I believe this guy is going to win vs this guy has the deck stacked and is going to get robbed".
     
    CST80 likes this.
  10. Hi-Tech

    Hi-Tech Active Member Full Member

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    The Devin Haney fan channels are in shambles right now and I'm loving every single second of it. Discourse would usually range from "Congratulations Ryan" to "the 3 pounds was a huge advantage" excuses. And even to "Devin actually won the fight" delusions. LMFAO YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS UP :risas3:
     
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  11. CST80

    CST80 De Omnibus Dubitandum Staff Member

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    Pretty much.:lol: You summed that up quite concisely.:sisi1
     
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  12. CST80

    CST80 De Omnibus Dubitandum Staff Member

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    Rehydration Weights. Exactly 3 pounds more.:rolleyes:

    Ryan Garcia 153
    Devin Haney 156
     
    Mark Anthony and vast like this.
  13. drenlou

    drenlou VIP Member Full Member

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    I re watched the fight yesterday and noticed Haney was hitting Garcia with kidney shots in the 10th while garcia was holding the left arm of Haney and not 1 warning from the ref. Total BS.
     
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  14. vast

    vast Obsessed with Boxing Full Member

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    Gambling is a horrible addiction. Avoid it.
     
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  15. CST80

    CST80 De Omnibus Dubitandum Staff Member

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    Might be one of the great fight shots ever captured.:sisi1
    This content is protected
     
    MarkusFlorez99 and vast like this.