Cooney should outbox Tua in the middle rounds but there is the threat of him being Ruiz'd early or caught up to late if he runs out of steam. I'd call it an even fight due to Cooney's lack of late rounds experience and shown fragility and Tua's difficulties of dealing with reach.
Tua trails by points coming into the fifth round or so,as Cooney utilises his longer reach. After this,Tua builds up his workrate and connects more often,forcing the referee to jump in and rescue Cooney anytime after the seventh.