GGG vs Quillin offer to be on HBO rejected by Quillin's team

You are likely correct about the carriers not wanting h2h events. Saying they wont "allow" is going too far, but they would prefer of course to maximize total PPV sales and would make their ire know is probably accurate. I wouldnt be so sure the fight would lose money though. And note I said "relatively" inexpensive, as in compared to the expenditures involved in a Floyd fight.

Unless Floyd was fighting PAC or Canelo II I actually think with proper promotion GGG/Chavez could outsell it, as only diehard Floyd fans would favor it. As you pointed out, unlikely to happen though due to carrier objections.

I was typing off the cuff earlier, but what would really come into play with putting the fight on that date is the Nevada commission. Maybe you forgot, but a month or so ago GBP tried to lock down that date for Floyd fight and DuBouf of TR was there and loudly objected, and killed it by pointing out that you cant sanction a fight when you dont even have an opponent.

If TR puts together a major fight first and gets it sanctioned , the carriers will go with that. Floyd will have to find a new date.

 

Only Pacquiao could potentially kill a Floyd fight. Both Vegas and the cable companies will side with Floyd against anyone else every time, and the idea that Chavez-Golovkin could ever outsell any Mayweather fight is utterly unfounded. We've already seen this last year when Mayweather pushed the Marquez-Bradley fight back.

 

HBO could put GGG vs Chavez(10 mil), KOvalev vs Brahmer(4 mil) on the same card with Wlad vs Pulev(7 mil)........
A worthy undercard consisting of TR and K2 fighters, maybe 5 other fights, Vargas, Allahkverdiev, other solid names at value price, and put it on for less than 30 mil.........

They'd do 1.5 million buys against ANY names on the planet.
Hell, Floyd could have BHop vs Stevenson as his comain and it still wouldnt top the HBO card.deal:deal

 

bob, clearly said sometime ago he would not go up against floyd right!!!

 

Marquez-Bradley date change was a choice, and an understandable one.

The carriers dont and wont read that much into who is fighting or deny a PPV slot based on potential competition for a fight not yet made.

Also - Floyds numbers without Canelo have not been stellar. Good, yes, profitable, yes (for carriers) but not anything the cable carriers are going to move mountains (or pick a fight with Time Warner) over. Floyds big PPVs have been against Mexican stars. If HBO goes to pitch fight to carriers (and it will be TW/HBO not TR doing that) with the Mexican star on that date, I 100% guarantee you that they will all agree to carry and promote the fight and Floyd will just have to wait.

When HBO goes to them with a package for a PPV feed, noone is going to tell HBO "no" because another network "might" come to them later with a package for the same date. The NSAC is not going to refuse to sanction a fight because it might commercially compete with Floyd either. (they already upheld TR objection to GBP holding that date without an actual fight) To think either of these things could happen is drastically overestimating Floyds influence outside of the SHO universe.

It seems clear now that without a big star opponent, he is a 850k buy draw. Remember thats spread across all carriers, even the numerous regional entities. If the carriers object to competing fights, its because its bad business in principle. Not because they are worked up over swings in their fractional portion of that total buy volume, nor would they lose a wink of sleep over it.

 

Floyd's numbers may be on a downswing but it's still extremely charitable to Chavez and Golovkin to expect them to come close to such numbers. Yes the Marque-Bradley move may have been a choice, but it was a choice that was made for specific reasons, namely that it's not smart at all for Top Rank to go against a Floyd PPV. The carriers may tell HBO okay at first, but they'll change their tune immediately if Mayweather wants to fight on that day; nobody is trumping him or making him wait save potentially Pacquiao. Finally please link this sanctioning story you keep referring to.

 

Could go down like a game of chicken. Really comes down to how well Golovkin's gate and viewer rating is on July 26 and also who Floyd's opponent will be.

GB/Showtime carry a much larger liability and could back off. They didn't have great numbers with Maidana in May, now their talking using him again for Sept. If Golovkin-Geale sells out the Garden and does near 1.5-2mill viewer ratings, that would be a good indication that Chavez-Golovkin could carry a strong ppv.

TR could announce Chavez-Golovkin before Geale-Golovkin even takes place and make adjustments to the date of Chavez-Golovkin if Golovkin's July numbers don't look as good as needed.

 

The date issue was mostly reported on/tweeted by

Steve Carp ***8207;@stevecarprj 1h
On the NAC agenda, Golden Boy date request for Sept. 13 at MGM Grand Garden for @FloydMayweather next fight.

Steve Carp ***8207;@stevecarprj 28m
Top Rank president Todd duBoef objects to Golden Boy's date request of 9/13 says commission has obligation to see who's fighting who first.

Steve Carp ***8207;@stevecarprj 28m
duBoef to NAC: "I don't think you just green-light an event based on the date without knowing who's fighting that night."

Steve Carp ***8207;@stevecarprj 26m
NAC opts to table Golden Boy date proposal of 9/13 for future agenda. Guessing Richard Schaefer will not be happy about that.


, though mention can be found here

http://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/boxing/top-rank-s-bob-arum-i-intend-do-fights-vegas

And I dont think GGG-Chavez would do 850k

Hypothetically speaking, if the fights went head to head I think Floyds numbers would dip below 500k and the GGG/Chavez fight would still do about 450k. I think thats being conservative in Floyds favor TBH, since boxing fans - particularly "fight" fans - would all be on the JR/GGG bandwagon and Floyd would just have "Floyd fans". JR/GGG would have pretty much all the Mexican and MMA crossover fans as well, so could actually potentially outsell - though its hard to make a firm prediction other than to say CBS/SHO would bleed insane red ink and JR/GGG would probably still be profitable.

 

Cold War, hot war, no war, it doesn't matter.
Kid Undercard does not want that fight.
He would get his jaw blown out.

 

Good card but lets be honest, the casuals don't know who the hell are the others other than Chavez Jr.

 

Thanks for the link. I think your projected numbers are quite wacky, and trying to pretend Chavez would somehow repeat the biggest fight of his career but Floyd would lose viewers is more than charitable towards one of the cards, just not the one involving Mayweather.

 

I'm not sure if they could do that since it's not really realistic to have Klitschko on the same card as such a big match like Golovkin vs. Chavez, since ultimately it would have to be Klitschko being the main event and with Golovkin/Chavez as the undercard. Even with GGG/Chavez being more anticipated by the American public, there's no way Klitschko could be included in a non main event fight and therefore that card would be impossible.

As for Golovkin and Quillin, no fight is impossible to make if both sides insist on it, absolutely none. To me it looks like Quillin is just hiding behind his promoter and television and using it as an excuse not to fight Golovkin. It's not like he's one of the biggest names in the division (Martinez, Golovkin, Sturm), but for some reason he still prefers to be an undercard fighter rather than trying to get the fight with one of the major titleholders.

 

Well, the key is to looking closer and thinking about who buys fights and why they buy them. Names have value, but so do matchups. Also I think you might be underestimating Golovkin's name value. At least among certain demographics, he has more casual name value than just about anyone at this point. Particularly among fight fans who drifted away from boxing in favor of MMA in recent years. And therein lies something of a wild card, because there is a pretty large segment of people who spend money on PPV fight cards - just not boxing cards in recent years.

On one card you have a Mexican name vs a guy who fights like a Mexican in a FOTY candidate type of matchup.

In the other you have a boxing clinic that doesnt promise a lot in terms of the fight itself. Note general fan reaction to the huge Canelo fight - part of Maidana doing literally 2/5 the numbers of Canelo was lack of Mexicans - a big part - but another big part was lots of fans who were hyped up for a supposedly huge bout not liking the product they received.

So if Floyd fights another Maidana, Ghost, Khan, etc type I find it hard to see objectively how Floyd would not take a sizable hit to his viewership. Floyd and Manny recent PPV numbers both prove that matchups matter - a lot.

On the other hand, the dynamic changes depending on who Floyd chooses to fight, so the ball still in his court so to speak. Id Cotto beat Martinez, and rematched Floyd for 160lb lineal, in Canelo beats Lara and got Floyd rematch, if PAC fight happened - in all those cases Floyds numbers easily shoot back up well above a million and a JR/GGG fight probably falls under 300k buys.

 

I think it would take some good wins for GGG and Chavez to compete with a Floyd PPV, so it couldn't happen this year. They probably could compete with Floyd IF GGG were to dominate Geale in July and then Martinez late this year, and Chavez were to pickup a good win or two, and then they do GGG-Chavez next year.

Obviously these events are simply for the sake of argument, but I think Showtime will do everything they can to derail GGG's success precisely because they feel he may be able compete with their PPV dominance should certain events occur. I think that is a big part of the reason why Haymon made Chavez an offer, effectively derailing GGG-Chavez. One, he's a popular Mexican fighter and two, and possibly more importantly, they want to delay GGG's PPV career as long as possible and a win over Chavez, especially a stoppage, would boost GGG considerably into the PPV market.

At the end of the day, GGG's big problem is no one big wants to gamble and get in the ring with him without a big paycheck--effectively pricing themselves out of the fight. If you add to that the fact that Haymon and Showtime might be trying to gum up the works for GGG, GGG has a major uphill climb to compete with Floyd's PPV numbers. It may not happen before Floyd retires.

 

Quillin is way over-rated and Schaefer does not want his guy to get trashed on HBO, which would be the case.