Canelo is the one on the slide, and GGG has already beat him three times at his best. This time he will seal the deal.
Canelo is still reeling from Bivol destroying him. If GGG somehow won this thing decisively, that'd probably shatter whatever confidence Canelo still has.
I have been thinking about this quite a bit lately. On the variety of other recent threads about this fight I have always posted that Alvarez will stop Golovkin inside of six rounds. There are some good reasons to think that. Triple G has looked every bit of his age recently. He has been noticeably slower and older in his last three fights. In his fight earlier this year against Ryota Murata he looked less than special until his power took over. What I have not taken into account is how Canelo has looked in his recent fights. I do believe the combination of being a bit older as well as fighting at 168 has slowed him down. As of late, his offense at 168 has consisted of plodding his way forward with the idea that with his superior skills and power he would eventually get to his opposition. That has been true each time. I don't really count the Bivol fight as proof of Canelo's decline. That fight was a step too far and a superior boxer like Bivol did what he should have done against a short, stumpy armed man fighting way out of his weight class. I don't see this fight teaching us much about what might happen this Saturday. As @G Man noted in his thread starter, Canelo is on the slide. I just think Golovkin is sliding faster and more precipitously. I hope I'm wrong but I'm going to stick with my pick that Canelo wins this one by the end of the sixth round.
Bivol really showed the game plan to beat the smaller Alvarez . Bivol was naturally bigger , longer , busier , had excellent footwork and a mixed multi-punch attack then angle away . It was a decisive win . Golovkin is too willing to stay in the pocket and trade with Alvarez who is the better counter puncher . Golovkin isn't as mobile as he used to be so he will be easier to find especially as the rounds go by . He probably will be stopped in the later half , about round 8 by body shots TKO or between rounds retiring on the stool . I don't see how Golovkin can win at this stage of his career , maybe a lucky bodyshot . Canelo is hard to hit to the liver with a left hook so straighter body shots or a right hook to a floating rib may do it , but it's unlikely.
GGG still has a jab. A jab can solve all your problems. If his gameplan is more about using the jab and taking less risk he might frustrates Canelo and get an opportunity to KO him during championship rounds. I am just giving a narrative here I don't really beileve this can happen. Canelo UD. But props to GGG if he creates a surprise saturday.
