Golovkin vs Canelo Tactical Analysis This is not an analysis to see who won what round, but more to see what each fighter did during those rounds. If you notice something each fighter can do in a rematch (if it does happen), feel free to comment! Rounds 1, 2, 3: Golovkin is the aggressor and Canelo is the counterpuncher. Golovkin initiates the offense and Canelo replies to what Golovkin does. So how does Golovkin initiate his offense? In the first round, Golovkin tries to do something similar to what he did to David Lemieux where he selects his punches based on where his opponent’s weight is. Golovkin throws a jab when Canelo’s weight is on his left leg (when Canelo’s weight is on his left leg, he almost always is using a high guard)He throws the jab because Canelo only throws punches when his weight is on his left leg. However, he does not just jab, he also probes to see how Canelo will reply to it. In the David Lemieux fight, he did not have to do that because Lemieux has a very limited offense compared to Canelo. When Canelo leans to his right leg and puts his weight, Golovkin knows that Canelo will not throw a punch. When that happens, Golovkin throws his own 2-3 punch combinations. Golovkin wants to time Canelo by taking advantage of Canelo’s rhythm. This is a very good way to approach way the fight because he will be able to tell when Canelo will throw punches. Canelo’s first reply to this timing based offense is to bait Golovkin to throw a right hand. Canelo quickly switches from right to left, this tricks Golovkin as he now thinks Canelo is now going to try and initiate his offense, this was just a set up for his right uppercut. After this first trap, Golovkin is now being more defensively responsible. Each time Canelo baits Golovkin by purposely leaning on his left leg, Golovkin sometimes falls for it and jabs or goes into a high guard or takes a few steps back to control the distance between him and Canelo. When Canelo is leaning neither left or right but instead is leaning forward, this almost always guarantees that a combination is coming. Canelo usually start his offense by leaning forward but tries to bait Golovkin by leaning left and then throwing a combination. But since Golovkin is aware that Canelo is going to throw a combination he goes into his turtle shell defense, usually the only punch that lands in these combinations are the first punches and the uppercuts. When Canelo just stands in front of Golovkin and leans in no direction, this is an instance where Canelo is off-rhythm. When this happens, it messes up Golovkin’s offense as he now doesn’t know where the punches are going to come from. And because of Canelo’s speed advantage, it can be hard for Golovkin to react to a punch and counter it. The problem with this is that Canelo can’t sustain this pace. He cannot fight for more than 3 rounds by exploding out of his rhythm to catch Golovkin off-guard.This is why Canelo looked great in the first 3 rounds but Golovkin looked horrible in them. As a result, Canelo tries to fight based on Golovkin's rhythm which is based on his own rhythm. (Rhythm-ception by Canelo). Canelo also tries to bait Golovkin to throw a jab, counter to the body so that Golovkin goes into a turtle shell and then throw combinations to the head. Note: Canelo also had noticed that Golovkin was trying to bait counters out of him, so he added an extra layer (one more punch) to his combinations when Golovkin tried to bait him, overall, this was excellent boxing by more so Canelo but also by Golovkin. Rounds 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9: After the first 3 rounds, two important things happen. Golovkin has adjusted and Canelo has tired out. Golovkin’s probing shots that he was throwing a lot in those rounds are now useful, he has enough information about Canelo to try and catch Canelo off-guard when Canelo tries to catch him based on his own rhythm (crazy stuff…). So now, instead of always countering with a jab when Canelo is leaning on his left foot, he sometimes answers with combination punching of his own, or just by throwing left hooks to try and confuse Canelo. Since Canelo is now tired and can’t sustain the same pace he had during the first 3 rounds, he isn’t able to control distance. Canelo does not control distance with feints or probes but instead with actual punches. When he does not have enough energy to throw punches, this allows Golovkin to cut distance and outwork him. When Canelo gains enough energy to throw a combination, he is not going back to his rhythm, he tries punch in combinations. The problem with that is, Golovkin expects it. He knows that they are coming, that’s why he blocked/escaped most combinations from Round 4 on. Things I noticed include: Golovkin letting Canelo come forward to him but not take the center of the ring so that he can land his right hand. The problem was that Canelo did not fall for it, he kept circling the ropes and kept making Golovkin miss his right hand. Another one of Golovkin’s adjustments was including more head movement when closing the distance, generally when Golovkin cuts the distance, he throws the jab, keeps his glove there and brings his whole body towards his hand. In this fight he moved his head even when Canelo wasn’t throwing punches to not allow him to stop him from cutting the distance by throwing a jab. Things both fighters can improve: In rounds 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 Golovkin could use more different setups for his right hand instead of leading with it or just setting it up with a jab. It's predictable, and Canelo can easily dodge it even though he doesn't make Golovkin pay for it. Canelo, on the other hand, could try to use smaller combinations and instead of trying to explode out of his rythm to catch Golovkin off-guard, he can try to strictly use his counters to "outbox" Golovkin. And by not exploding out of his rythm, he also saves energy to do simple things like controlling the distance. If he has more stamina saved, he can have more success in those middle rounds. Credit: Mathew Fouts, BDA Boxing, Precise Puncher, Paulie "No Power" Malignaggi.
It's better to understand what actually happened instead of just using fancy words like "effective aggression" and etc...
