Groves has looked better, against the higher level of competition, even in his three losses than Mundo has...well, ever. He looked the goods offensively against the Swede but also wolfed down plenty of leather himself. Groves is a much harder puncher and superior defensive boxer compared to Skoglund...and I think he would have taken him out. That said, Mundo is the much larger SMW and despite his chicken legs is powerfully built (from the waist up) and has that wiry strength & power - and Groves' chin is hardly invulnerable. I think Groves dominates early with the jab, then starts to come unglued as Smith leaps in with kamikaze two- and three-pieces of power shots, gets decked a time or two and hangs on to either win a UD or stop the Scouser late.
Good analysis I agree with your potential outcomes provided Groves’ shoulder holds up. First round will tell us a lot about the condition of the shoulder.
I think JB would have upset Smith had he not bitched out of this thing. Groves 116-112 - 117-111 type of decision. Possibly wider.
Do you foresee Groves being in any danger at any point? Eubank seems far more athletic/explosive and likely to swing the tide of a fight with a wild shot, and Groves comfortably navigated around that for 12 rounds. I think Groves would really have to **** the bed to implode from the pressure Smith is going to bring.
I think Groves shouldn't have much issue as long as his body holds up. Smith has looked incredibly pedestrian past a certain level. He needed a late knockdown to really separate himself from Skoglund and at times in that fight he was being completely outboxed by the Swede. He dropped rounds and went the distance with a short notice kickboxer who everyone expected to be destroyed. Even unhealthy Groves might have enough craft and tricks to eek out a win.
It's available at +175, Groves decision that is.... Maybe have a punt on that and protect your ass with a 50 dollar bet on Smith to win ITD at +350?
Callum is a far more basic and paint-by-numbers sort than Eubank, for sure. I'd say he might pack more pop though, with his straighter punches. Groves will need to be careful, but if this is even a middle-of-the-road performance for him (let alone on par with the best we've seen him) this should be an easy night's outboxing the younger man.
Callum is more basic but has better physical attributes and an ok long range jab 1-2 game to fall back on if he cant blast his man out. Eubank for all of his athletic ability is a pretty stupid fighter who hasn't evolved at all in the last couple of years. He can slug it out with most guys and overwhelm them with his volume but never has a plan b, not even something as basic as Smiths.