Guillermo Rigondeaux vs. Leo Santa Cruz.

Rigo.

Frampton has a good chance of pulling off the upset though.

 

No he doesn't. Both Frampton and Scott beat him.

 

I don't see how anybody could logically sit down and map out how Leo wins.

First off, Rigondeaux will have won half the battle as soon as he establishes his lead hand. This wouldn't be hard to do seeing as Leo has NO JAB. He doesn't jab his way in or even move his head to get inside. Rigo's range finding jab will be there as always, it'll be checking Leo's left hand and keeping it at bay - thus starting the process of lowering Leo's output. While the right hand is doing all this work, Rigo simply needs to do what he does and move around the ring, make himself small and take away the target from Leo.

Then, as he has Leo following him about the ring, Leo is going to try cut off the ring and get inside where he can do some damage with his nice combinations. But the problem here is that Rigo's pretty much dissuaded him from leading with his left hand for the most part AND Leo doesn't move his head when he marches forwards. This leaves a huge target straight down the pipe for Rigo's faster, more explosive left hand. Either to the head of the body. Once Rigo lands this left hand, he spins out away from the ropes and he is back to keeping Leo at bay. Leo will be walking into so many left hands if this fight ever materialises.

So what can Leo do now? He has to throw caution to the wind and try overwhelm Rigo on the ropes. But when Leo throws his combinations he is incredibly open for counter punches. Whenever he gets a combo going Rigo is simply going to fire quicker his left hand around Leo's right. When you're getting countered like that, your punch output lowers.

So what can Leo do now? He can't walk in, he can't fight from long range... Perhaps he takes a big step forwards with his left foot to get himself in range quickly. Rigo exposed this same flaw in Donaire's footwork. As Leo steps in with that left foot, he has so much ground to make up for bringing his right forwards that Rigo simply whips the right hook out, cuff it on Leo's head and spins out to his right leaving Leo's feet in the sand.

THE ONLY THING LEO CAN LOOK TO DO IN THIS FIGHT IS TO LAND HIS LONG RIGHT HAND. Leo does have a nice right hand that he is capable of throwing from range, and this is precisely the shot that caused Rigo to suffer a knockdown against Amagasa. If you go and look at the tape you will see Rigo spinning around to his right, ducking low and going roughly 270 degree's around Amagasa. When he comes out at the end and goes to step back, he exits his spin in the orthadox position and so has to bring his left foot back to the rear position. When Rigo is spinning around, as soon as Rigo leaves a space, Amagasa steps forwards on his right foot (This takes away the possibility of Rigo landing a sneaky shot over as Amagasa is turning on the spot to meet him), rotates his torso and fires a long right hand. This right hand comes out and lands just as rigo is swapping his feet back, leaving him totally off balance. Normally Rigondeaux doesn't need to worry about that shot coming, as it's very rare he meets a fighter who is 5'11. Leo isn't quite as tall as Amagasa, but he has the range that if he throws that right hand perfectly straight in the scenario's where Rigo steps out with his hands down, then he may manage to land something big and possibly leave Rigo on the ultra defensive where he can then step in with combinations. But if he catches Rigo with this once, he won't find the opportunity to find it again.


The way I see this fight playing out is Leo starting out fast. Trying to throw everything he can while Rigo simply moves, defends and sticks that right hand out there. Rigo will look to land something big early to dissuade Leo from the offset (When he rocked Donaire back in the first round, it was obvious from there that Donaire was afraid to come in reckless). Rigo then moves around for a couple rounds checking Leo's left hand and smashing his own lefts down the middle as Leo walks in or starts to throw. After a couple of rounds Leo's workrate has dropped from his usual 90 a round to maybe 50 or less. Leo's workrate will continue to drop and Rigo will gain more confidence. He'll start to stand his ground and back Leo up at times from centre ring, landing some punishing left hands. Leo's face will be bust up pretty badly and he will probably get buzzed a few times. Leo could always catch Rigo with something that stuns him a bit and then he can get some work done, but it will be short lived and he'll maybe win 2 rounds tops with that sort of success. Rigo, desperate to look good on US TV, will start to really find some hard shots on Leo in the late rounds. In the last two rounds or so Leo realises he's about 9 or 10 rounds down and comes out trying to throw everything. Rigo will dance around the ring making leo miss with everything and potshot his way around Leo to a UD with a 11-1, 10-2 type score.

 

LSC is going to push Rigo like never before. Rigo will want to set his pace, but LSC isn't a one dimensional fighter. I know Rigo is the superior boxer or even puncher, but if LSC draws him into a toe to toe battle like Maidana did with Floyd, Rigo is in for a long night. Also, recently LSC has been improving on his right hand, a useful weapon against southpaws. For a brawler, LSC has good boxing skills, he's not the type that just waltzes in. If LSC was one dimensional, then I'd pick Rigo to steamroll him, but not so sure.

 

Show me some of Leo's other dimensions please. He hasn't shown me any. His boxing skills are very weak. I'll give you his right hand is nice, but that's about it. No head movement, no jab, his footwork is one dimensional and flawed, he doesn't come in at angles, he doesn't switch his punching angle to vary the offence...

And there is no chance he'll get Rigo to go toe to toe with him. Floyd is willing to fight like that because the confidence he has in his chin. Rigo knows that he is just making his work harder by doing that, so he will NOT go toe to toe.

 

He is lucky he only spotted Donaire one round. Looking at the judging for that fight, had Donaire actually won four rounds, they would have robbed Rigondeaux.

 

That 114-113 card still makes me feel sick.

 

i have to question anyone who picks LSC based on rigo getting knocked down in his last fight. he went down but did not look hurt at all got to his feet was very composed, no one is going to knock him out and rigo has incredible power for a master boxer.. he has guys like agbeko throwing single digit numbers in certain rounds

 

Leo is gonna shock the nation. Rigo can't hang.

 

It's really not that hard to see he's not a face first come forward fighter like a Margarito or Rios. He has a tight guard and constantly darting in and out behind a jab in the Roman fight while walking him down. Speaking about jabs, he has an underrated jab and knows how to use it. He jabs to the head and body before connecting with a short, compact, but lethal right. In his last fight he demonstrated he's not just a volume puncher as most thought, he could end it with one punch if he wants to. In the Roman fight LSC showed a nice snappy jab and looked faster than usual. He showed he was not always late starter too.

 

One thing I can say is Leo has a sneaky left hand/straight left after he throws his right, he throws it as a shift punch too. Could catch and wobble Rigo.

 

Rigo will not be able to handle the workrate or toughness of LSC. He will be worn down, hurt and stopped.

Conventional ESB wisdom, as usual, is horribly wrong on this one.

 

Santa Cruz is listed at 5'7, and a volume puncher. Not sure why he wouldn't be jumping at the chance to overrun a 5'3 guy, unless he wasn't confident in his ability.

 

He says he wants the fight, but with him being a Haymon fighter and Rigo being a Top Rank fighter, you know how that goes.

 

Just a reminder Rigo is not longer a TR fighter he's free to fight anybody.