Hatton would be stupid to go straight into a fight like that. But assuming he does. I would still pick him. Paulie is not an elite fighter. He can't keep someone like Hatton off him and he has no in fighting skills.
Both arn't Elite fighters Malig easily has the physical edge now... Unless Hatton does extremely well in his comeback fight (if it happens) he won't fight Paulie.
I think the layoff and all the weight that he added would be too much for him. I got Paulie on points.
All Hatton has to do is take away Paulie's jab and cut the exit routes. Easier said than done, considering he'll be coming off a looooong time on the sides. But if he can still remember how to do that and can maintain a reasonable level of fitness, he should win.
Based on their first fight we know that Hatton has the tools to neglect Paulie's strenghts which are speed and movement, the main question here is how much effect has the long layoff take on Hatton's body and how much has he declined mentally and physically, i think that even if hes say 50% of what he was he will be too much for Paulie, but damn why coulnt he stay retired knowing him if he beats Paulie he will want another shot at whoever his pound for best at the time and he will end up getting a beating again.