HBO tripleheader analysis

First up, Angulo-Rivera. I thought Mayorga would destroy Angulo and don't think too highly of him, but he should dominate in this one. Rivera is taking it on short notice and is a 147 pounder. He won't give Angulo an easy night because he has the experience and durability to make it fairly tough, but he should get outworked and outfought badly.. losing a wide decision or getting stopped in the late rounds.



Martinez-Cintron is by far the most interesting matchup of the night. Cintron has not faced a southpaw or fought at 154 since very early in his career, so it's hard to predict how he'll handle these changes. I think the outcome of this fight all depends on how well Martinez takes Cintron's shots and who's more comfortable. Martinez was stopped by Margarito, but more because of exhaustion and not being prepared than anything else. He was dropped twice by Richard Williams though, so his chin is not just a question mark but a serious concern. And Cintron should get quite a few opportunities to check his chin.

Cintron has above-average one punch power and decent timing. Martinez has impressive reflexes, but I think he's the type of fighter whose defense only looks good against C+ levels or below. When a fighter swarms him with some combos, he doesn't react well (looks a bit panicky) and pulls straight back with his hands down. He's very open to the right hand (Cintron's best punch) when he tries to get out of range after stepping inside and throwing a combo. If Cintron hurts him, I think it'll most likely be from a right hand when Martinez is moving back. Also, Martinez loads up too much sometimes when pressuring and could be caught by a left hook he doesn't see coming.. another punch Cintron has in his power arsenal.

Martinez has the advantages in footwork, footspeed, handspeed, and overall reflexes, but he's not much of a puncher and I do not see him hurting Cintron with single shots. I could see him overwhelming Cintron on the inside though, like many opponents have in the past. Cintron can't fight at all on the inside when opponents don't show respect for his power. But if Martinez gets caught with some big shots early, I think he'll be showing respect and will be more tentative than usual, allowing Kermit to fight at a comfortable pace. Also, Martinez doesn't really like staying on the inside anyways. When Cintron is relaxed and fighting a mostly outside fight, I think he'll be landing the harder, more meaningful shots even if Martinez has higher compubox totals per round. However, if he doesn't get Martinez's respect early, he might find himself mentally breaking down in an uncomfortable fight where Martinez will switch between swarming him and getting out of range to potshot him.

Martinez seems like someone who needs to have everything going well for him to stay in his rhythm and the same could be said about Cintron. Either of them could break down mentally in this fight and start making extra mistakes. I still can't pick a winner. I could see Cintron tagging Martinez with huge right hands and stopping him as easily as I could see Martinez outboxing him with his speed/quickness and taking more rounds.

I favor Forrest heavily over both though (this fight is a WBC eliminator).



I've become a big fan of Campbell after the Diaz win and finding out about his life and how he is as a person. I've also looked back at a bunch of his fights throughout his career and I think he's at a point where he's not ****ing around anymore. He's finally having full training camps and is extremely dedicated to performing at his best in every single fight. A lot of people are picking Funeka because of Campbell's inconsistency, but I don't think there's any realistic chance Campbell won't be 100% and ready to shine on saturday.

From what I've seen of Funeka and judging by his record and some articles, it's safe to say he's not even close to Campbell's level and only has a small puncher's chance. He got a big win over Raheem, who couldn't figure out how to deal with his size/reach and got starched before he was able to adjust. Raheem was being overly tentative against him and any time the fight would go inside he clinched. Campbell will be a completely different fight. Funeka has been down 3 times and in his fight against Amidu (a guy who was destroyed by light punching Scottish Ricky Burns), he was hurt badly and barely won a decision in a back and forth war. Funeka's power isn't proven and Campbell won't give him opportunities to get off his huge shots for the most part anyways. Nate will outbox him from the outside and on the inside he'll attack him to the body, outstrength him, and not have any trouble landing combinations. I don't think Funeka is ready for a fight like this and will break down even before six rounds. Nate by stoppage in a 90/10 fight IMO.

What do you guys think (especially about Martinez-Cintron)?

 

He would be lucky to last that long.. or unlucky depending on how you look at it.

Funeka is going to crumble pretty quickly IMO.