Heavy Dawson/Tarver analysis.. why I think Tarver will get destroyed

After rewatching a lot of their fights, I am very confident that Dawson will win this fight in dominant fashion.

After the Johnson fight, Dawson has become underrated by the majority of boxing fans. I think it was a very clear victory for him in a fight where he didn't look as bad as I remember him looking (or many others describe). He made mistakes when exchanging too much with Johnson and not sticking to moving and boxing. He had a few mental lapses during the fight when he became too relaxed and once again showed that his chin is shaky. But he also showed his heart during very rough moments, displayed amazing skill/ability like always, and showed that he could make adjustments when he needs to (but he also needs to learn to stay with those adjustments throughout the entire fight). Dawson has been steadily improving throughout his career and I believe he'll come out as a smarter and more comfortable fighter after facing Johnson.

A quick note about Johnson.. he really stepped up to another level for that fight and there's nobody like him in the division. Titanium chin, relentless high output punching, and intelligent pressure behind a decent guard. IMO, outside of Calzaghe/Kessler, Johnson is the only fighter who could give Dawson a very tough fight. Dawson has power and even a fighter like Adamek showed him great respect when getting hit, but Johnson literally walked through everything somehow and kept coming. I can't see any pressure fighters being anywhere near as effective against Dawson and the only boxer-punchers that are capable of beating him are the true elites (Calzaghe/Kessler).

Dawson's offense is one of the best in the game. Amazing arsenal and variety, natural flow and instinct, effectiveness from different positions off the backfoot or coming forward, impressive precision, great body punching, nice snap, excellent feints, solid workrate... basically everything you would want to see in a fighter's offense, plus he's a southpaw which makes him trickier to many opponents. He has sensational speed, above-average power, and great overall talent. Defense and mentality are the only things he needs to improve on. He has great reflexes and a good guard, but he seems to lose concentration in fights when everything starts going his way. It's a pattern with him. He gets in the zone and practically tees off on his opponents, then he begins to relax too much, moves his feet slower, and forgets that his main priority is to watch out for punches.. and that's when he gets caught (best examples obviously with Adamek/Johnson). He also sometimes gets too excited and trades punches on the inside way more than he should, making him more vulnerable to getting caught when he could instead be jabbing and moving. He could fix both of these issues though after gaining more experience and becoming more comfortable with his style. His chin is a serious concern, but he has handled situations where he was KD'd or hurt well and his heart is unquestionable so far. I would worry a lot with him facing a true power puncher and possibly getting laid out, but Tarver isn't one and there isn't a top level one at 175 right now anyways.

Now let me move on to Tarver.. the one month away from his 40th birthday Antonio Tarver. After his performances against Muriqi and Santiago nearly everyone was talking about how past-it Tarver looked. After Woods, most of those people have stopped.. why, I don't understand. Yes, he got a win against a titlist and like expected, came in better shape and looked superior to the Tarver who fought Muriqi. But although he deserves credit for becoming a champion again, you have to look at Woods realistically in this fight. He didn't look focused or motivated from the beginning. This was a guy who barely got by an old Julio Gonzalez half a year before that in a fight where he looked a lot more motivated (probably because it was in front of his hometown fans and Gonzalez's brawling style charged him up and made him get into the fight more). Tarver's style was a big issue for Woods too, but the main issue was Woods' lack of activity and desire to win. Woods fought at a slow pace, showed horrible defense like always, and had no strategy whatsoever, so Tarver was very comfortable with the situation. When he backed him up and Tarver stood with his guard up on the ropes (resting), he barely even went to the body, barely threw punches in general, and let Tarver clinch him way too often.

Tarver looked sloppy and old, just not as sloppy and old as he did against Muriqi (a fighter who BTW looked like he wanted to win a lot more than Woods did) and he won a title, so people were impressed. Over half of Tarver's punches didn't have any real power behind them. His constant flurries had nothing on them and were just a way to look busy. During these flurries, he also squared himself up often and left himself way open, but Woods refused to punch back for the most part. At this point of his career, Tarver's legs are that of an old fighter and he looks very sloppy doing anything. His reflexes have slowed down and I don't think he could take a punch like he could in his younger days.. he's even looked slightly stunned a few times after getting hit in recent fights. One important thing to point out is that when Woods showed anything resembling intelligent foot/head movement, he didn't just make Tarver miss, he made Tarver miss big and fall out of position at times. When Woods threw punches, he was effective and when he didn't, he wasn't. That's the story of the fight. It's not like Woods wasn't capable of having success and Tarver wasn't giving him opportunities. Al Bernstein even pointed this out. I'm not being biased towards Tarver here.. it's just clear that Woods didn't show up highly motivated and the interview after the fight where he basically didn't seem to care and said that he might retire (he apparently has) helps support this point.

Now onto Dawson-Tarver..

If I had to make one prediction for this fight it would be that Dawson will have huge success with his jab and the more he throws it the easier the fight will be for him. He will knock Tarver off balance and back to the ropes with it constantly as he doubles/triples it up, making him very uncomfortable and using it to set up big punches (especially the straight left and hooks to the body). Muriqi had success when he used his jab a lot. At one point of the Woods fight, Clinton actually turned southpaw and even he was able to knock Tarver back after doubling up and landing two right jabs. But unlike Woods, Dawson will not be standing and hesitating or letting Tarver clinch and get a breather when he puts his guard up on the ropes. Dawson will be ripping hooks to the body and following up with a large variety of combination punches, while still staying out of range for the most part. Tarver is going to get worn down.. his body will get punished severely and he'll be fighting at a much higher pace than he has in many years. I don't think he's capable of taking what Dawson will be throwing at him after about 6-8 rounds. He'll slow down while Dawson will keep coming with intelligent pressure and high output.

As soon as Dawson sees how uncomfortable Tarver's response to his pressure will look and how easy landing and controlling him with his jab will be, he will become the aggressor in this fight. I think it'll happen as early as the first round, after a minute or so with the southpaws feeling each other out. Tarver will look terrible when being backed up and I see Dawson being more aggressive than usual, taking advantage of the faded Tarver's declining reflexes, slower speed, and overall sloppiness. Also, I think Dawson will make Tarver miss very often and make him pay with huge counters. Dawson might fight more emotionally charged than usual and get too excited (looking for the KO and exchanging more than he should), but hopefully his trainer Eddie Mustafa Muhammad will calm him down and make him understand that he should fight a safe fight and wait for the stoppage to come as he breaks Tarver down.

Tarver does have a chance in this fight, but I think the chance is a small one since his timing has faded and his handspeed is slower. Plus, if he does hurt Dawson, I doubt he will finish him because of how sloppy he is offensively now, how his stamina will hold up when swarming with many consecutive power punches, and also because of Dawson's heart. All Tarver could hope for to come out victorious is landing a monstrous punch that Dawson doesn't see coming which hurts him to the point where forcing the stoppage will not be difficult. The chance of that happening is no more than 10% IMO and that's all I'm giving Tarver in this matchup.

Dawson is just too fast, too skilled, too talented, too young, and too effective for Tarver to have much of a chance here. His movement and quick in-and-out of range style will give Tarver all sorts of problems and the large difference in handspeed will also be very significant. He will not have any trouble finding holes in Tarver's defense and I think he has the power to hurt him at any point of the fight. Maybe this is a bit extreme, but I wouldn't be surprised if Dawson blew him out within the first 6 rounds. Tarver is way past-it and he doesn't look very durable anymore to say the least. I'll go with a Dawson stoppage in the second half, after a complete domination over Tarver.

Anyone agree? Anyone have arguments against this?

 

Tarver is old, sloppy, and has power (IMO not real 1 punch KO power though like someone else said).. Dawson is an elite fighter with a shaky chin.

Yeah, plus Dawson clearly won the fight. Scoring it for Johnson would be scoring too much for aggression and giving Johnson a huge gift. Dawson will learn from it and get better.

 

The Glen Johnson who fought Dawson is clearly not the same caliber of fighter as the Clinton Woods who fought Tarver.. not even close. Johnson stepped up for that fight in a book way while Woods didn't even come in very motivated and retired after the fight. Plus, Woods is much easier for Dawson stylistically and he wouldn't be able to walk through Dawson's punches the way Johnson did.

I agree that it's a dangerous fight somewhat, but the chances of Tarver taking Dawson out are very small. He's nearly shot and Dawson will be steamrolling over him from the start.