Zapata would be a nightmare stylistically but his chin would fail him down the stretch. Arbachakov gets outboxed for a good portion of the fight before he lands a KO blow out of nowhere with a lethal right hand.
Another vote for Yuri here. Both brilliant fighters. Zapata wasn't the force at Fly that he was at Light Fly and whilst Arbachakov's resume outside of Kittikasem is a little underwhelming, he looked like an utterly brilliant Flyweight to me.
Arbachakov a bit too proven at the weight compared to Zapata for him to be picked against here imo. The Panamanian was as sharp as a razor and slick as a wet bar of soap in his prime but had slipped a bit after his fights with Chang and with his move up in weight. He had lapses in concentration more often than he did at 108 and someone as well-schooled and aware as Arbachakov would certainly take advantage of that. It's also worth noting that Zapata comes from the Central American school of southpaw slickness. Cuba, Venezuela, Colombia and Panama all share a lot of stylistic traits and that's relevant here because Yuri's extensive amateur meant he had a lot of exposure to top-level Cuban amateurs, whereas I can't find any evidence of Zapata's amateur career, meaning he's less experienced against the bouncy, 1-2 heavy Soviet style than Yuri is with the slick southpaw Central American style. That said, Zapata did still give a good account of himself against Santos Laciar and ran him close on the cards, gave a very solid showing against Fidel Bassa and very arguably should have won both bouts, and beat Dodie Boy Penalosa all at 112, so he shouldn't be counted out entirely. It's quite arguable that Zapata faced better competition than Arbachakov at 112 though of course had more mixed results. Arbachakov was also riddled with injuries and hand problems during his reign and was only really at his best prior to his title run quite possibly.