I was hoping some more knowledgeable of the lighter weights would chime in so I wouldn’t have to go first. I have been looking at the lighter JFW to Bantam for the past few months. I have gone back and forth for a couple of hours since you posted this thread. I would pick Zapata, but not with real confidence. I am hoping @Flea Man or @Tin_Ribs will chime in
The earlier-career Carbajal who used his boxing ability to set up his attacks would probably have a punchers chance ala Ursua but I think it far more likely that Zapata on a good night would mostly leave him unable to get set and hitting air for long stretches. He could be outboxed as Gonzalez showed, and Zapata (even post-Chang when inconsistent and failing to frequently give his best) could still take an excellent pressuring fighter like Laciar to the wire having already given Chang an excellent fight first time around.
I think Carbajal can get his shots off. Sure he wasn’t anywhere as good or quick as Chang was at closing the distance, but Tomori managed to bulldoze his way in and whack Zapata to head and body a couple of times in their second fight and Carbajal was bigger, stronger and a significantly harder puncher. Ursua was tiny but a humongous puncher. Carbajal was deadly. I think he could get it done, but he could be outboxed also.
