Starting with Shavers I, Larry was ready to take Muhammad. Earnie marked both the end of Ali as a top heavyweight, and the beginning of Holmes as one. I do think Larry may have been too green prior to Shavers I. That performance was a quantum leap from his previous outing against Arrington. Ali couldn't have hurt Holmes in 1977, but still out think him, and maintain a significant psychological advantage over his former sparring partner. It wasn't yet fully realized how much Manila and Inoki took out of Muhammad, something that didn't truly crystallize until Leon Spinks upset him with a balls to the wall effort. As 1978 began, Norton was still considered THE MAN among the HW contenders, but he'd failed to dismantle the Ali mystique as expected in '76, leaving that aura intact. Caution, boxing not to lose, was not the way to successfully dethrone Muhammad, and my supposition is Larry would have fallen into the same conservative trap which cost Young, Norton and Shavers. For Frazier, it must be a bitter irony that his effort in Manila might have been enough to beat any version of Ali who stepped foot in the ring after 1975, but nobody went after Muhammad like that until Neon Leon (who was too inexperienced and naive to be cautious) risked gassing to rack up an early insurmountable lead with his nothing to lose attitude. I can't see a more mature stylist like Holmes adopting that posture. The same youthful immaturity which cost Leon later is exactly what brought him the title to begin with.
In the book Facing Ali, Larry Holmes had this to say - "Fighting Ali in 1980 was a no risk title defense. I knew all his moves. I could have beaten him in 1975." While that last statement may be debatable, I believe that in 1977-78 Holmes would have dominated him, or even stopped him if he pushed it.
Duodenum gave a good analysis of the heavyweight picture around that time frame and a reasonable conclusion as to what might have happened. I myself think that from 1978 onward, it was all Holmes. The Ali who lost to Leon may have at least survived the 15 round distance and stollen a few rounds, but Larry was ready to take the win regardless.
Presuming a 1978/77 stoppage by Holmes based on what happened in 1980, when Ali overdosed on Thyrolar, is something of a leap of faith here. Muhammad never lost his ability to take a punch, and his showing against Berbick while 20 pounds heavier and pushing 40 was improved enough over Holmes to satisfy me that Ali would have at least had the energy to last the championship distance in 1980, if he hadn't so stupidly tried to use Thyrolar as a PED. His conditioning was good enough to take him the limit against Larry when they fought, but he might as well have had the flu when he screwed himself up with that drug.
