Hopkins' control on the ropes: At some point in the fight Calzaghe will attempt to swarm Hopkins, chasing him to the ropes. There Hopkins will gain Calzaghe's respect by bouncing off the ropes and butting Calzaghe in a manner that appears legitimately accidental. This will either continue until Calzaghe gets cut or he decides he can't afford to attempt to flurry Hopkins on the ropes. Hopkins' control in the center of the ring: Hopkins will use constant lateral (side to side) movement to prevent Calzaghe from setting up a good shot or a combo. If Calzaghe attempts to get in close to force the fight, Hopkins will leap in with his chin tucked to grab and wrestle Calzaghe. Very quickly Calzaghe will become frustrated with Hopkins' tactics and begin to fight more agressively, as Hopkins continues to stymie his attempts to force the fight, he will become more frustrated, not only by the tactics, but the fact that Hopkins' can get away with all sorts of dirty tricks in the ring. Hopkins' control of the championship rounds: Contrary to most people's firm conviction, Hopkins will be the fresher of the two in the championship rounds. Calzaghe will be worn down from the constant wrestling, clutching, clinching and generally rough style. He will be lucky if he has not damaged either of his hands, winging punches at the top of Hopkins' head. He will mostly likely have a cut on one of his eyebrows from Hopkins' butts. At this point in the fight, Hopkins will begin to become more active, targeting Calzaghe's cut with his incredibly accurate lead right hand or lead left shovel hook. The fight will either be stopped due to the worsening of Calzaghe's cut or Calzaghe will survive final rounds tired and discouraged.
One of the better analysis's I've read pertaining to this fight. You especially nailed it on this point: Hopkins was truly made for the days of 15 rounders. He's ALWAYS the fresher of the two at bout's end. In fact, I've never seen Winky look like such a miserable wreck after a fight. He looked as if he had been raped and battered. Calzaghe has outstanding stamina, but the rough-house tactics employed by Hopkins tend to wear opponents down in a more unconventional way. By fight's end, Calzaghe will be wondering what the **** just happened. Good post. :good
I don't see any reason why Hopkins would be fresher in the late rounds, after wrestling, especially if he moves so much laterally, throughout the fight. Also, I don't think Calzaghe will become as frustrated as you think. He's learned a lot from the Bika fight about frustration, I think.
A young hopkins would be moving just as much laterally and actually forcing the pace, throwing more punches. A 43 year old Hopkins will have to rely on feints and accurate counter-shots. Hopkins' style of wrestling conserves energy while draining his opponent, mainly because it occurs at a time when they are setting themselves to unload and all of the sudden they are trying punch against the resistance of wrapped arms or trying to wrench their arms free, while hopkins is using them to support his weight. Hopkins and Bika are like apples and oranges comparatively.
Not to be considered a legend....headbutting is not legal so why should that be a legitimate tactic??? It's a nonsense if your basing your win on headclashes rather than boxing skills......
Hopkins has an established legacy regardless of the April 19 outcome. A win over Calzaghe will only further enhance it. Is it illegal if you do not get caught? That's the beauty of Hopkins. He has turned 'bending the rules in his favor' into an art form. Hopkins has greater skills than Calzaghe, regardless. He is as versatile as they come and has an uncanny ability to stick with a game plan and see it through. In the end, Hopkins will secure the "W". Sounds to me like you're making pre-emptive excuses. :smoke
I'm making excuses for nobody....if Calzaghe loses he loses, simple as....but to use headbutting as a gameplan seems desperate...I know he will be 44 at the time of the fight but surely he can win by other means??? It's not beyond him to sneak a UD without the old-man rough-house tactics
thats true that its not Joe's style but it is the style that he adapted to against Kessler after he started getting hit by counter rights. JC definately showed that although its not his typical style, he can use it with success against good opposition. If he wants to win the style battle against Hopkins then IMO thats the one he'll have to use.
Again, I revert to my initial question: Are you saying that finding a way to win should not be a top priority? :smoke