Tough fight IMO. Pavlik has shown he can be outboxed. Hopkins has shown at times that he can be out worked and out muscled. Who takes it and why? This fight could be a good one whilst they are both waiting for the winner of the Kessler v Calzaghe fight to sign...
Very tough fight to pick. Not only because I have not seen Pavlik at 168, but for a variety of other reasons too. Pavlik can be outboxed as you said, and a guy with the reflexes and movement like Hopkins can trouble him and make him look awkward. Also, Bernard's ability to get inside and fight inside could somewhat nullify Pavlik's punching power. If Hopkins still has good footwork, sharp reflexes, and timing, he can outbox Pavlik. However, Pavlik comes into every fight with a good gameplan and consistently sticks to it. He could be very effective with a sharp, quick double jab, keeping Hopkins off balance or catching him with it as he tries to come in. But you can't simply bet on Kelly to win the fight with the jab because Hopkins has proved he can neutralize it. I think Kelly would come into the fight with "aggressor" on his mind. He would push the older fighter back and throw more punches - not at the same rate because Hopkins makes it damn near impossible to do so. If Hopkins has lost even more timing and if his reflexes have slown even more (in other words, if he has aged even more), Pavlik may be able to hit Bernard with some straight right hands down the pipe. My guess is that Pavlik wins a decision, just by being busier and landing the harder shots, but looking bad in the process and missing more than he ever has because of Bernard's caginess and craft. However, I would not put it past Bernard, even at 42 or 43 to win a decision. One thing I'm certain on - it would not be an easy night for either man.
Good post... I think I may actually go with Hopkins in this one. Pavlik is pretty akward on his feet sometimes, and doesn't have the speed to trouble Hopkins that taylor did. if winky couldn't box with BHop, I just don't see what Pavlik can do. Bhop is far to clever to let Pavlik get off. He will pot shot, hit and hold, and do everything possible to frustrate Pavlik. Pavlik is essentially a one dimensional fighter, and I just can't see him being able to adjust. Hopkins UD, although as you said age will definitely become a factor more then ever with the pace that Pavlik will push, and it really could go either way.
Brooky....Brooky....Brooky.....:-( Pavlik has shown he can be hurt....and outboxed. His footwork is not good either. I agree that he is good at sticking with a gameplan, but is there ANY fighter out there that is better than Hop at taking a fighter OUT of his gameplan? On top of that, with Pavlik's deficiancies in his mechanics...he will have a VERY hard time actually hitting Bernard. And Bernard will have NO problem hitting him at all. With his timing and Kelly's defensive shortcomings, he would be open all night for Bernard's counters and that lead right. Quite honestly, Bernard would ruin this kid. Has he ever been in there with a fighter of his calibur, experience, defense, OFFENSE, intelligence, chin, or anyone HALF as dirty as Bernard. This would not be a close fight. And Hopkins was only outworked by Taylor when it was his whole gameplan to allow that to happen. Im sorry, but I would be surprised if Pavlik saw the end of the fight...
Hopkins fights as ugly as Ruiz. He just hold and paws until he bores the other fighter into making a mistake, yeah it works for him but it makes for **** borning fights. Pavlik wins by UD
You know I'm a big B-Hop fan and have been over the past decade, but I'm torn about this fight...it's tough for me to pick a winner. Bernard is still an elite fighter, but I'm not sure how he would fare with another year lay-off. His reflexes and timing aren't what they once were and I'm afraid that, at 43, it would be even more apparent. Pavlik is younger and his pressure, workrate, and aggression might lead to a decision victory. I can't see either stopping the other. Maybe I underrate X at this stage in his career though
Pavlik could hurt anybody from 160-168 if he lands flush. The question is whether or not he could actually land a big one on Bernard.
I think Hopkins was wary of Taylor's power that he was not able to unload his offense as much as he had wanted. Hopkins lost those two fights becasue of his inactivity, and not becasue Taylor was the better fighter. Which to think about it, the judges should have given Hopkins the benefit of the doubt in the first fight; he was the reigning champ then.:-( As for this fight, if Hopkins's offense suffered against Taylor, what more against a more active and heavier puncher, with good chin?
as much as i do not like Hopkins ill go with him easily on this fight. he def has the defensive skill to eliminate Pavliks big right no doubt. Hop by UD.
Hopkins wasn't weary of Taylors power. He has fought against bigger punches in the like of Echols and Trinidad. He was weary of his speed, which made it very hard for BHop to outbox him, even with Taylors many technical flaws. Pavlik does not posess the same handspeed, which leads me to believe that BHop could definitely take this one.
I agree with you post, although I also share brooklyn's concern regarding how much BHop has left in the tank at this point.