Toney. Toney is too strong and will counter Hops to death on the outside and beat his ass bloody on the inside.
Toney would only have to lose like 40-50 pound and if you consider his training regimine consist of just sparring ... he would do well actually putting in some work during training. I really don't care who would win this fight ... neither fighter is aggressive and they're both counter punchers -- It would be a very boring fight ... Toney would be laying on the ropes waiting for Hopkins to come to him and Hopkins would be waiting in the middle of the ring waiting for Toney ... They wouldn't engage much -- Hopkins would be trying to potshot - but i'm sure he wouldn't be all that effective with all that weight -- Toney would be trying to sneak in punches ...
Hopkins is more consistent and has the greater wins. Toney fought them all but does not have the wins of Hopkins.
Right now the weight loss seriuosly affects Toney, Hopkins wins. Besides Toney won't be able to make the weight. We do not even know if he can still make 225 let alone 185. The Toney of the Jirov fight is a different story.