How can Hopkins win?

Well if you remember, Bika opened Joe up with a butt or two.

Hopkins has the ability to capatalize on that cut if it's opened up and then who knows? Maybe the fight gets stopped on cuts.

That's going to be Hopkins' strategy---make it an ugly foulfest and then when Joe is uncomfortable, try to pile on points when you can and go for a decision.

 

Make it a slow, dirty fight so he could slice a good percentage off Joe's output. if he controls the tempo of the fight there's a good chance the rounds would swing in favor of Bhop.

 

Its the only way Hopkins knows how to fight. He cant take punishment for more than 3 rounds at his age so he has adopted this throw 4 puches a round technique which has worked perfectly uptil now but for how much longer?
Tarver, Tito, Winky Wright, Taylor and pritty much everyone he has fought dont throw half as much as Calzaghe does. So i see Hopkins in alot of trouble come the 19th. He will not be able to absorb Joes 1000+ punches so i`m afraid it`s curtains for Nard. :deal

 

Trust me on this one. Calzaghe ain't getting off 1000+ punches against Hopkins.

 

I re-watched the Calzaghe/Kessler fight and Kessler had some moments. Kessler's accuracy in power punching was amazing at 47%. He caught Calzaghe with some clean, hard shots which backed Calzaghe up. Kessler even countered Calzaghe well at times. And he doesn't have nearly the smarts and intelligence as Hopkins.

Calzaghe does leave himself open for shots right down the pipe IMO. I never understood why no fighter attempts to just counter right down the pipe when he's doing his pitter patter thing from the side. Just throw it down the pipe. And it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Hopkins completely does this and catches Calzaghe constantly.

 

I think Hopkins has better boxing insticts and is more solid fundamentally so he should counter more than try to out-manoeuvre him like he did to Winky - yes that is a strong possibility. I believe Hopkins has radar-like anticipation abilities and he switches swiftly so he could make Calzaghe miss a lot more than people expect - Winky landed only 167 of 618, 80 powerpunches of 328 thrown ( that is 24% connect rate) and Calzaghe already missed 72% of total punches and 68% of powerpunches against a stationary target Kessler...

Hopkins has that very solid technique of tuckin in his chin down behind his shoulder and going behind his punches so Calzaghe may land on shoulders and side of the head and get blasted with huge shots right on the money on the countermove. There is just one problem I am seeing for Hops - remember how Calzaghe was caught in fourth by Kessler (Gif image) with a right when marching in and pushing his punches? Hopkins will have to be very quick/strong to breakthrough ( like against Tarver in the 5th - Gif image) or he won't penetrate.

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He landed only five punches in the first round against Canadian Vanderpool, only six punches against Puerto Rican Trinidad in the first round, only three punches against Englishman Eastman in round number one and eight in round number two when he joined Golden Boy Promotions with former opponent Oscar De La Hoya, landed only five jabs through four rounds against Taylor from Little Rock, Arkansas, in July 2005, (four jabs landed through six rounds in the rematch in December 2005), landed only two punches in round one, seven in rounds two and three in his rematch against Taylor; landed only three punches in round one and nine punches in round two against Antonio Tarver in his first fight at 175 pounds since 1990.
http://www.eastsideboxing.com/news.php?p=14882&more=1

He will have to step up his game against Calzaghe.

The also veteran Calzaghe has been forced to work exceptionally hard and upped his game against Jeff Lacy and Mikkel Kessler, delivering something like 1000 punches in these most important and recent fights, and he may have made a stronger claim to have the superior momentum now

 

It will take a miracle for Hopkins to beat the active Joe.

I like Hopkins to win, but if only he can do that.

 

It's going to be a tough fight. He can win but I am going with Calzghe who is much younger and on top of his game. The last times Hopkins fought someone like Calzaghe he lost two close decisions. Hopkins is planning to counterpunch. He is hoping that he can hit Joe enough that Joe will punch much less. If his plan pans out he could win.

 

I know that article because I wrote it... But I remember to have mentioned some amazing connect rates in Hopkins' fights like against Simon Brown and Carl Daniels ( 60% plus), Keith Holmes and that 96% connect rate against Echols in the fifth ( 27 out of 28 )... The guy doesn't waste punches and that is one of the main criteria when judging a fight - clean effective punching. But I continue to say that Nard is not going anywhere with those slow starts and poor outputs against this guy, and I remember to have said ( and heard) that he can't pick up the pace and win the late rounds because Calzaghe won't fade against him... Calzaghe does fight better when his opposition is better.

 

He can shoot him.

Moral victory imo

 

yep you did and those connection rates are something special. You know he aint gunna miss or mess about punching thin air, personally i think Calzaghe who leaves himself open quite often will only take so much off Hopkins before he realises that he has to end the fight quickly or face 12 rounds of 99% gettin hit everytime he moves forward, which will only favour the judges to go for a Hopkins win. If it turns into a similar fight he had with Bika then we will be in for a long night.

 

I am less confident about a Calzaghe win now than I was when the fight was made.

 

Thats right youre coming along now

Join the dark side:hat

 

lol, nowhere near that convinced mate!