How can Hopkins win?

Dorf hit the nail on the head with his analysis. I expect Bhop to setup trap after trap for Calzaghe to fall into. Joe's technique is too wide open for a fighter as smart as Bhop.

Look for Hopkins to use superior footwork and counterpunching to take Joe out of his game. After that, it's not going to be pretty for Joe.

 

It happens almost the opposite with me PrideOfWales, cross my heart and hope to die... I almost can't believe in myself when tryin to figure out ways for Hopkins to win. Not that I don't believe in myself but it would be foolish to start siding with Hopkins now. I really don't think Calzaghe can lose this one but he should not get overconfident - don't give this guy any chances and eliminate all risks.

 

as implied elsewhere, bhops advantage is his ring smarts and craftiness. joe holds physical advantages surely altho not as big as some of you guys think (except workrate). the question is which advantages win out.

 

That's the same process I went through for the Kessler fight. By the day of that fight I was more convinced than ever that Joe would beat Kessler by a fairly wide margin and alas, it happened.

This time however, I was originally completely convinced that Calzaghe would win. I couldn't see a way that Hopkins could handle Joe. However, that's what Hopkins does better than most - handle situations. Hopkins in theory, does everything you need to beat Calzaghe: counter-punch, punch accurately, stick to your gameplan, fight intelligently. He's also not going to bother jabbing which is pretty much a wasted punch against Joe. In fact, a thrown jab is an opportunity for Joe to counter, a form of attack that is null and void in this fight. Calzaghe has to force the pace and that's a worry. I can't see Joe being hurt at all and I see him winning on points but I can see the arguement for Hopkins as well.

 

Calzaghe always had a bad habit of dropping his hands and tryin to control the distance, mixing up fast bodyshots and hooks thrown upstairs from his waist. End of round 2 against Sakio Bika...

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He can't afford to make those kind of moves at that range against Hopkins because Bernard is a well-schooled fighter that makes every punch count - he counter-hooks with accuracy, much better balance and timing. Calzaghe can get hurt right there.

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He cant and wont. The much older man simply will not be able to handle calzaghe's speed & workrate. Dont be blinded by Bhop's win over bloated Winky and drained B level Tarver. Taylor was the last A calibre fighter Hopkins fought and he lost a controversial decision, Calzaghe is A+ with stylistic advantage. RJJ's speed troubled a much younger Hopkins, Calzaghes not as fast but he sure is fast.

 

I know you're not trying to compare them..but with the GIFs, This Hopkins isn't the same Bernard who owned Tito all those years ago.

 

Easy by Hopkins making Joe fight his fight. He's the best in the game at doing this.

 

He cant.

 

Damn good post man....

And Dorf, I dont say this very often on this site, but even tho we dont agree on everything...you are a damn good poster man! Cheers!!

:good

 

Hopkins is...
-A better inside fighter
-More experienced
-Better defense
-Makes fewer mistakes
-Better 'ring intelligence' (meaning that he has a bigger bad of tricks at his disposal for changing styles and nullifying someone elses game)

But the biggest thing I've seen (and if someone else already said this I apologise!):

Hopkins's straiht right and right hand counter are VERY difficult punches to handle. You don't know the right hand lead is coming because he throws it outside of your rhythm, when you don't expect it. Also he disguises it with his own rhythm, hides it behind his lead shoulder. You don't know that its being thrown until its too late (for most fighters) to avoid it.

Calzaghe makes mistakes. He lunges forward and leaves himself OFF BALANCE and OPEN. If he does this (which I can't see him not doing a few times), Hopkins will nail him with the right hand counter.

Sort of like when Hatton would lunge in, and Floyd was able to nail him with a left hook. The outcome wont be the same, but in this situation Calzaghe is very open.

A fighter like Kessler was only able to land on Calzaghe about twice in their entire fight when this happened. Hopkins on the other hand? This is the very thing that Hopkins is BEST at. Identifying opening's in a fighters game, and landing the right hand through it. He already knows that Calzaghe does this, and will be ready to land big right hands.

Also Calzaghe fans, this is not the inactive, slow starting Hopkins you saw fight Jermain Taylor!

Hopkins's last fight wasn't very pretty, but whats important to notice is that he threw TONS of punches, started fast, and even was able to use his legs quite a lot to give him advantages over Winky - thats not the way old fighters fight.

Quite simply let me boil it down to this:
-Calzaghe is INCREDIBLY talented, a natural. However, his greatest flaw is he makes mistakes that leave him open and off balance.

-Hopkin's may not have the physical advantages that Calzaghe still enjoys, but his greatest strength is EXPLOITING other fighters mistakes.

And what makes Calzaghe fans so sure that Bernard can't do what he does to everyone else, and slow the fight down, make it dirty, and beat Calzaghe on the inside?

You say "How can Hopkins win?", I say "Why shouldn't he win?"

Also Calzaghe fans often point out that Joe can fight in ANY style, and can adapt to ANYTHING. Joe DOES adapt, but he takes him longer than Hopkins.

Also what is Calzaghe's game plan going to be? If its not the right one, it will take him half the fight to change it. Hopkins has a million different plans to. A million different tricks to nullify anything Calzahe will do. Hopkins's entire style is based upon taking away his opponents advantages, and messing up their game plan. Calzaghe will NEED all of his different styles and strategies.

 

B-Hop just needs to show up.....

 

Oh and btw I'm picking Hopkins, and betting him just to win. Some idiot here at school gave me REALLY good odds. So even if I lose I'll only lose $100, and if I win.. well lets just say I don't have to pay for my paints next semester!

..or my canvas, frames, pastels, inks, paper, charcoal, graphite, uh..

Maybe not my textbooks either!

 

No I will not get blindfolded by the Winky fight and the Tarver fight. I was remembering more about Hopkins hitting Echols in the seventh with a counter left hook, have him running across the ring and knocked down through the ropes, or Hopkins pounding on a helpless Vanderpool when the referee intervened 10 seconds before the last bell in Indiana, I was more thinking of Hopkins snatching the body of Daniels, left hooking him consecutively and get those many rights through the middle before the one-sided fight was halted after round 10 or pounding on Joppy at the end of a sustained beating for 12 rounds.

You say that Calzaghe's whirlwind attack and pitty-patting is gonna have Hops hands tied... And I wonder if he will not fight back if Calzaghe is all over him and with his hands at waist level? And now there's that issue with age and handspeed - Jones never came on in that fight ( Jones 206 out of 594, Hopkins 153 out of 670) - Jones never took chances, potshot with authority from range, hard right counters and power leading left hooks and moved out of the way, when trapped down on corners, banged with explosive triple left hooks to the body to get him off... Calzaghe can't fight that way, not even 14 years after Jones-Hopkins. So he's gonna bang to the body and hook to the head and dropping his hands like Bernard is not gonna do nothing.. LOL

 

I seriously laughed for about 5 minutes out loud when I read this.. freakin hilarious:rofl