I think you're wrong here. Calzaghe is a very experienced, intelligent fighter. He really only fought stupidly several times, most glaring was Reid as he tried to literally kill Reid in the first four and then paid the price and was stuck with a hard fight as he refused to adjust. He hasn't fought stupid really other than against Sheika and Brewer, two guys who he wanted entertain against. Normally has a good game plan for each fighter.
this will be a surprising fight, despite Calzaghe having the faster hands and being a slapper and Kessler being a very hard puncher, Calzaghe will be the brawler and Kessler will be the boxer. Kessler can win against Calzaghe from fighting the outside with his far more superior jab and counter with a hard right if Calzaghe tries to do something. But if Kessler goes to war, I expect a calzaghe shutout.
He looks just as fast as Kessler. Kessler doesn't move his head much. Besides, he's never fought a guy like Pavlik before who has reach, power, height, and is arguably just as fast as he is. He didn't look that much slower than Taylor who was actually surprised at how fast he was. He was landing that jab quite regularly on Taylor, and this was a pre-6th round Taylor. Kessler can't move like Taylor, yet Pavlik won't be able to land on him?
capfunds hit the nail on the head. kessler will definatly land the straight right when calzaghe , misses with a straight left and falls in hands down, chin exposed. it is a flaw in calzaghe , whats more calzaghe tends to bend down eye`s not seeing this punch coming , making it a harder more unexpected shot. its possible calzaghe will be floored by this punch as kessler has the speed /timing and power to deliver this shot flush. other than this/kessler has to control the ring center, as calzaghe will beat kessler IMO if kessler back up, kessler must get his jab into a rythem , landing or not to keep calzaghe from throwing so many combo`s, kessler must throw uppercuts to stop calzaghe getting the timing of his jab/cross and coming in and around them, and also to keep calzaghe from swarming in close. left hook a big factor to stop calzaghe coming around the jab from his southpaw stance, kessler muyst get his lead left foot outside calzaghes lead right foot so he stays in balance and timing,from his orthodox stance. although kessler`s best weapon is his jab, he must not plant his feet and go for great power in it , as his want but to double up on it and be lighter on his feet, this also will stop calzaghe getting inside. must never play rope a dope with calzaghe, in this fight, tie him up on the inside and wait for the ref to break, as if calzaghe gets inside and makes it a phone box fight he negates kessler`s best arsenal which are long straight punches. kessler must not blow his load early and must save energy for the later rounds as calzaghe can still throw a 100 punches a round in the last 3 to 4 rounds. try to counterpunch the counterpuncher from range , dont reach with the punches/tie up when calzaghe gets inside ,let his punches flow at all times to counter clazaghe`s workrate, use light feet and move to his right as calzaghe likes to move and come in and around from kesslers left.
Kessler moves better than Taylor. His positioning is 100 times better and he doesn't waste his energy with useless body movement. Also his punches are more fluid than Taylor's. Anyways Pavlik was outclassed by Taylor in the early goings of the fight, and Taylor abandoned his jab early, which Kessler would never do. Kessler beat Mundine, who is faster than Pavlik and Taylor put together, and Kessler was still recovering from a back injury during that fight. Like I've been saying I think Kessler wins a close but clear UD against Calzaghe, but he would definately dominate Taylor or Pavlik.
Kessler is very cool in the ring, and if things is not going in he's direction he will change he's plan himself, other boxers will depend on the guys in the corner, thats the diference to Kessler and the rest!
you cannot know that for definate because i have seen all kessler`s important fights and he has not been put in a postion where he has had to change to a plan B. plan A is take ring center, pump out and establish the jab, keep a high tempo and as the rounds wear on throw the right cross , and occasional left hook both off the jab. in kessler`s defense he got cut early in the andrade fight , and it never bothered him in the slightest , he never dabbed at it, or worried about it. i liked this about him.
He appears to move better because he can use that stand up style where he blocks the majority of his punches because he doesn't fight guys who dwarf him and height and reach. When you're that tall, there isn't much need to move your head because they have to get inside to punch you, so as long as you keep outside of their range, blocking the majority of the punches is fine, IF YOU BLOCK punches with the stand up style that a taller fighter such as Kessler generally uses. I agree that Taylor outclassed Pavlik in the beggining of the fight, but that's because Taylor is an excellent athlete with great reflexes and it made it difficult for Pavlik to him him in the beggining of the match. When has Kessler faced an opponent of Pavlik's dimensions and calibur? He hasn't.
For me, a few keys: 1) Use the jab as defensive weapon No. 1. 2) Remember to stay on the move. Don't plant. 3) Do not fight on the inside. Then, using those tactics to stay in the fight, 4) Time Calzaghe sometime during the middle rounds, thwart Joe's attack and take over down the stretch with accurate, consistent punching. People continue to overlook Kessler's impeccable timing and sense of distance. I still think Calzaghe wins because of his advantages in speed and agility, but if he has slipped, even a little, Kessler will prevail. Can't wait.
I'd favor Kessler over any of the guys at 160. He's strong enough to hold his own physically against Kelly, and his technique is much more consistent. Kessler actually moves his feet more than Taylor -- the No. 1 key vs. Pavlik -- which shouldn't be the case but is.
Joe's going to push Kessler to the ropes, flurry than carelessly step back, squaring up with his hands down... at that moment Kessler will come forward pursuing Calzaghe with a right hand lead and since Kesslers power is always best on the front foot, it'll be the beginning of the end. Kessker TKO 7 :bbb