how long will it take Floyd...

Normally I'd say 6. But Cotto won rounds late, and Canelo hurt Trout in the 7th, which makes me believe that even if Floyd starts winning clearly, he won't be able to operate at his usual comfort level. If Canelo gasses though he's gonna toy with him and beat the **** out of him.

 

I'm not entirely sure it's as clear cut a Floyd victory as people might argue. Canelo will come in at close to middle, 160, lots heavier than Floyd...if he can catch Floyd like Carlos Hernandez did and Chop Chop Corley did then it could be curtains.

I appreciate Floyd is a National Treasure for the US, but I don't think he's invincible (see JLC first fight when he questionably won), age isn't on his side either, it could be a changing of the guard here.

 

I don't think it will happen this time. I expect a Floyd UD, but not without one or two awkward moments.

this won't be a walk in a dusty Texas park for Floyd

 

JG, have you been ringside at any Floyd fights?

 

no more than 5 rounds

I saw Alvarez feeling some fatigue as early as the 3rd round in his previous fight

 

I'd say he'll have him figured out by the 4th or 5th round and than it will turn into a glorified sparring session by round 6 or 7. Great chance for him to finish him off if his hands can endure the fight. That's always been his biggest issue since the lighter weights, the fragility of his hands. IF he hurts either/both of them, than he'll just potshot him to a simple UD.

 

Fair enough, John, your wealth of championship fights ringside trumps most on here. I'm jealous.

 

I expect to see Canelo weaving in like he did with Trout the 1st 2-3 rounds, and Floyd moving a bit, landing the odd jab to the body. Canelo will be feinting and throwing one punch at a time, and not really committing to anything.

Around 4th round, Floyd will feel the need to take over and will try to be more on the front foot, baiting Canelo to throw and causing both fighters to freeze. Crowd will start booing the lack of action and Canelo, being the less experienced, will start being more aggressive and make mistakes that Floyd will capitalize on. From then on, it will look like a typical Cuban boxing match.

Good to see you all by the way (Trail, JG, Bogo).

 

I think automatically assuming this fight will turn into a sparring session for Mayweather is discrediting the overall challenge. Alvarez is a VERY live underdog. I think Mayweather will win, but he'll win by being more extraordinary than he has ever been; he'll rise to this occasion and make it his finest hour. He won't win simply because he is Floyd Mayweather.

 

I would say by the 4th round it will be clear Alvarez is a glorified sparring partner.

I don't think Alvarez will give up then, but it should start to sink in to both Alvarez and the fans that there is no chance Floyd will give Alvarez the opportunity to land the one big shot that is Alvarez' only chance in the fight.

Once Alvarez realizes he has no chance to land that shot, the fight will be over all but officially. Not sure how long that will take after it becomes clear he's playing the role of sparring partner.