How the dominant heavyweight champions lost their crowns, and did people see it coming?

I think Sullivan would have been dethroned by Jackson had he been rash enough to meet him.
By the time he fought Corbett he was totally through, but had assumed mythical status so it was a huge upset ,looking back at his,age ,inactivity and lifestyle it should have been predictable that Corbett would box his ears off.
As you know Johnson had not been in top condition since his fight with Jeffries 5 years earlier, he had gone from a ripped 208lbs to a soft 225lbs with excess fat on his hips and rump.He hadn't been living the life of an athlete, far from it and overestimated his own stamina and in turn, severely underestimated Willard's durability.
In agreeing to a 45 rds fight with a conditioned, strong, and durable giant in such conditions he was effectively gambling that he would stop his challenger,because there was no way he would be able to last 45rds in those circumstances.Everything was geared up for a White Hope win, an aging champion, out of shape and broke.They got him at the right time. He put up a great fight but ran out of gas.The referee said if he had given a decision after 25 rounds Johnson would have been a clear winner. Had an in shape Langford or Jeannette,met that version of Johnson they may have turned the trick before Willard did,but White American did no want another black man sitting on the heavyweight throne.
Dempsey .I don't think anyone expected Tunney to beat Jack but the high life and soft living plus the extended time out of the ring had taken Dempsey legs,speed, and stamina.He was well beaten ,who else could have beaten that version of Dempsey?Wills was past his prime by then too so apart from Sharkey who nearly managed it, nobody really.
Louis ? Nobody, though no longer The Brown Bomber he was still the best fighter in the world when he retired.
Ali losing to Spinks was a major upset ,but again with hindsight, several others might have turned the trick at that time.Holmes would have beaten 1978 Ali imo.
Holmes could have lost to Page,Thomas, or Williams & Witherspoon in rematches.I'm not sure he really lost to Spinks.His mouth didn't do him any favours at times.
Tyson was an accident waiting to happen ,apparently he was availing himself of geisha girls going into the fight, had a sloppy corner and met a good fighter having the best night of his life.
Wlad was beaten by a guy who has proved most of us wrong he just couldn't get going against the unorthodox Fury whose movement totally befuddled him.

 

After the fight, referee Jack Welch said: "If I had been compelled to give a decision at the end of the twenty-fifth round, it would have been Johnson's by a wide margin. Up to the twentieth round, Willard had one won only one round by a real margin and two or three others by the slightest shade. In the thirteenth and fourteenth, I was almost sure Johnson would knock Willard out, but Willard showed that his jaw and body were too tough. Johnson put up a wonderful fight to the twentieth round, but age stepped in then and defeated him." Not close according to the referee!

 

To be fair to the both of them, there was not a whole lotta money in fighting the now regarded top competition of the time. I'm sure this was to keep the reoccurring threat of a black champion from becoming probable for the next decade or so. They already hated Johnson enough as champion.

 

Can't really say about the Sullivan loss, if was expected or a massive shock. Probably those closest to him were not surprised, with his life style.
Not sure how rated Corbett was then? Did the expert s of the time see anything in Gentlemen Jim, to make em think, this is the next best thing?

 

listed odds

Sullivan 4-1 over Corbett
Johnson 8-5 over Willard
Dempsey 4-1 over Tunney

Sullivan and Dempsey were big surprises but shouldn't have been after three year layoffs.

Johnson? Well, he hadn't looked that good against Moran, had not been active, was old, and Willard was big and big always impresses people, for good reasons, so it appears that this fight was not that much of an upset to the folks at the time.

I think Louis against Walcott was a bigger surprise.

Wlad? He was getting very old.

Tyson was the biggest shock. He was not only viewed as invincible, but at his peak, and who was Douglas?

The second biggest shock was probably Baer losing to Braddock. In retrospect, Baer was vastly overrated.

Holmes? An aging fighter going against an undefeated champion. A surprise, but perhaps not that big a one.

 

Johnson signed contracts to defend against Jeannette twice, the site to be NY and Langford and Mcvey in a two fight deal in Australia, all 4 fights were aborted by the NY boxing commision threatening the promoters ,the McMahon brothers with suspension if they put the fights on and the promoter in Australia, HD McIntosh pulling out when Johnson jumped bail and the Australian public opinion and pressure from religious groups was brought to bear on him.All those concerned made public statements giving their reasons why they pulled the plug on these title defences.The NY Commision said it was not in the best interests of boxing to allow Johnson to defend his title in NY .Johnson even offered to give free exhibitions for charity but was turned down.The statements from the NY Commision and the erstwhile promoters of both fights can be found in volume 2 of Pollack's biography of Johnson,"The Reign",along with the dates and purse monies.

 

Johnson could have fought Langford, Mcvey or Jeanette. He also pulled out of a signed deal to meet Langford as champion.

You are the only one here who thinks Johnson really wanted these fights as champion. Known promoter tried to make these matches.

 

Adam Pollack , whom I would suggest is the greatest living authority on Johnson ,has shown in his two volume biography that Johnson was indeed prepared to defend his title against his three foremost black challengers Langford ,Jeannette ,and McVey.
What he was not prepared to do was to defend his newly won title against Langford for a measly £3000 which was what he was offered by the National Sporting Club.Johnson reneged on his agreement to fight Langford for the £3000 purse saying as champion he was now worth more money, and by the way you are wrong on the terms, the deal was for Johnson to fight Langford in the UK,whether he was successful or not against Burns and it was signed before Johnson left for Australia.

.Johnson had challenged Burns at the age of 30, he had waited a long time for his chance and only got it because HD McIntosh was prepared to offer Burns the unheard of $30,000 to risk his crown against Johnson,Johnson barely got expenses for the fight.
Once champion and in the driving seat he announced his price for a title defence was the same $30,000 with nobody barred.
Joe Woodman ,Langford's manager could not even come up with the agreed cash binder to seal a fight. After several smaller offers of $20, 000 and $25,000 the McMahon brothers finally agreed to meet Johnson's asking price of $30,000, Johnson agreed but as I've explained on this forum, about ten times now,,,the NY commision vetoed the fight twice and as a result it never happened.
HD Mcintosh after much wrangling agreed to give Johnson $45,000 plus liberal expenses and training monies and a percentage of any film rights for Johnson to defend against both Langford and McVey in Sydney Australia,public opinion turned against Johnson when he jumped bail and became a fugitive and McIntosh made a public announcement that he was no longer interested in promoting these fights.
I've many times asked for those who say Johnson could have gotten his asking price in other countries to defend against these three challengers but have yet seen concrete primary sourced proof that those offers were ever on the table.Theodore Vienne wanted Johnson to defend against Jeannette in Paris and offered $20,000 and stipulated that the fights distance should be decided by himself.As champion why should Johnson be dictated to about the distance , an extended distance which would favour the marathon man Jeannette ? And why should he have accepted less than his asking price? Vienne made a public stament that he had increased his offer to $30,000 but this was disputed.
The three major US promoters of boxing during Johnson's time Jim Cofforth,Jim Curley .and Tex Rickard all categorically stated that a match between two black men was not a viable financial proposition.
As late as Jan1914 the LondonOlympic Sporting Club offered Johnson 30,000 to defend against Langford but the purse was to be split 3/4 to the winner 1/4 to the loser.The National Sporting Club that same month offered a miserly $15,000 for the fight.
I've no doubt Johnson preferred to take the easier fights against his white challengers,rather than face his three black foes, he was getting top dollar to fight the White Hopes and didn't need to be in the sort of condition he would have to be in to face his far superior black challengers.Johnson was living the fast life and must have realised his prime had come and gone.He was abetted in his choices of defences by the White public who wanted a White Champion atop the throne and by the fact that his chief threat ,Langford was himself seldom in very good condition for his fights during these years , coming in fat several times and weighing 200lbs or more.
The fact remains that as champion, Johnson signed to defend against this three most dangerous challengers and it was not he but others who vetoed the fights.

If you have any concrete , verified offers,[not newspaper talk ,] that met his asking price and can prove Johnson refused to take them please post them I'm sure I and everyone else will be delighted to see them and I'm equally positive that Adam Pollack will feel the same!
And please no silly rubbish about the fight could have been promoted in Russia!

 

Wanted to add my 2 cents. Spinks win over Holmes was far more shocking because Holmes was on the verge of tying Marciano and nobody (to my knowkedge) had ever moved up from Light Heavy and won the heavyweight Championship in their 1st fight.

Also I think you understated just how much of a shock it was for Douglas to beat Tyson. He was supposed to go 1 round, 2 tops! He was supposed to be just another victim. He was absolutely an afterthought. People were looking ahead of him and onto Holy-Tyson.

 

You are an excellent poster.