Hurdles for Wilder to overcome and the case for Helenius

Wilder:

1. Winless since November 2019

2. Will have only completed 10 rounds in the previous 32 months and have been inactive for 12 months

3. Accrued a lot of injuries throughout his career, possibly including a ruptured left eardrum in one or both of his last two fights

4. Will be just about to turn 37

5. Made a massive amount of money in his last two fights, has his investments and enjoys activities outside the ring (music, cologne, scuba diving)

6. Brutal, ego destroying back to back KO defeats to Fury after an unbeaten run spanning 12 years, 43 fights and 10 consecutive heavyweight title defences over 5 years

7. Has been pressured to come back and will have concerns that returning will further damage his health and tarnish his reputation/legacy, especially if he comes back a significantly diminished fighter but if Wilder returns and does very well he’ll be indirectly boosting Fury’s legacy by extension, so in a way he can’t win

8. Feels he has accomplished his primary goal, which was to become a world champion and support his disabled daughter “beyond belief”

9. Articulated feelings of diminished motivation, conspiracies against him (if he truly believes this, won’t he probably be set up to lose again?) and has contemplated retirement

10. Knows that a loss to Helenius would be hugely embarrassing and would end his career and that he’s not just expected to win but to win in one-sided, devastating fashion


Helenius:

1. Big

2. Big puncher

3. Highly experienced as an amateur and pro

4. Little weight of expectation

5. Good reasons to be motivated

6. Has sparred Wilder extensively

7. Has seen Fury execute an effective pressure gameplan twice

8. Three KO wins over former belt holders (Brewster, Peter, Liakhovich)

9. Three KO wins on the road as a wide underdog (Teper, Kownacki x2)

10. In the best form of his career

 

Probably, Wilder is levels above. But given the context it's not a gimme, I expect Wilder to be 2/9 to win with the bookies.

 

AJ will need a confidence builder if Usyk hands him his third defeat in his last five and Hearn won't throw him in with a 6'7 KO puncher, that could easily be 4 losses in his last 6 and career over.

If AJ-conqueror Ruiz beats 43+ Ortiz I see PBC making Wilder-Ruiz as a logic step after Helenius. If Ortiz beats Ruiz then I see them going for a different opponent rather than Wilder-Ortiz 3, hopefully Sanchez before AJ or a title shot.

 

Cheers. I heavily favour Wilder to win; Helenius has a suspect chin, suspect engine, is too hittable, doesn't move that quickly and hasn't been so active himself. But it's not a fight without danger considering all of the other factors. If I had to put a % on it plus or minus 5%, I'd say Wilder has an 80% chance to win. But a 20% chance of losing is far from insignificant, greater than you'll see with most title defences.

 

Helenius is arguably Wilder's 7th best non-Fury opponent:

Ortiz 1
Ortiz 2
Stiverne 1 (beat Helenius in the ams)
Duhaupas (beat Helenius in the pros)
Szpilka
Washington (beat Helenius in the pros)

But you could make an argument for Helenius being a few places higher than that: he KO'd Kownacki twice, who destroyed Washington and Szpilka. He KO'd Teper (albeit washed up) who years earlier beat Duhaupas in a close fight. He also went the 12 round distance with Whyte and Chisora, officially beating Chisora. So I'd place Helenius above Washington and Szpilka and in Stiverne 1/Duhaupas territory.

What makes Helenius unambiguously more dangerous than all but Ortiz 1 and Stiverne 1 are the circumstances of this fight.

 

The problem is that Hearn knows there's a very real chance that AJ would get dusted by Wilder, which in addition to a 3 loss streak and 4 losses in his last 6 fights would mean that the value of a hypothetical Fury-AJ fight would be severely diminished. Hearn hopes it can still be made even if Usyk beats AJ again but being brutally KO'd by Wilder on top of everything else could close that door for good. I don't think Hearn was keen on this fight in 2018 (when the plan was to age Wilder out while narrowing AJ's experience deficit) and I don't think he's keen on it now.

AJ's "resume" could be in tatters at the end of next month if he loses again to Usyk, Ruiz loses to Ortiz and Parker loses to Joyce.

Ruiz fits the mould of two previous Wilder opponents: Stiverne and Arreola. I suspect he's better on the front foot and he got a great win but relative to Stiverne and Arreola he's shorter, has shorter arms, less power, is probably not as durable and is even less disciplined. Everyone understands Ruiz's game by now, there won't be any surprises. I also see Wilder coming to kill in that fight as it would make Joshua (who he hates) look bad and because Ruiz would have had to beat Wilder's best win (albeit a much older version) to challenge him.