Hurdles for Wilder to overcome and the case for Helenius

"About nineteen times out of twenty a proficient, rangey boxer-puncher like Helenius is going to be beat a good brawler."

It depends on your attributes. If David Price had a chin and an engine he'd have been a proficient, rangy boxer-puncher. Helenius showed engine and will to win against Kownacki that he hadn't shown in lots of his fights. Kownacki also didn't fade in those days: look at the punch stats for his 12 round war with Arreola just before Helenius 1.

"Helenius has been inactive just as long as Wilder has"

Yes but other things being equal inactivity hurts the favourite more by making the result more random. If they are both off the pace then maybe Helenius lands at a critical moment when a better prepared Wilder would have got away. And if Wilder dusts him early then that's probably what would have happened if they were both active anyway.

"There is no such thing as an elite or near-elite..."

Kim Collins ran a PB in the 100M of 9.93 seconds at age 40: a sport where athletes tend to peak significantly earlier than HW boxing. You have to judge athletes on a case by case basis.

For an easy counter-example, the 38 year old Wlad who obliterated Pulev was a better Wlad than the one who got destroyed by Sanders and Brewster and was punched all over the canvas by Peter.

Another counter-example is L. Ortiz, who was a novice pro at 30 (though with 20 years of boxing experience) but a championship fighter at 38+.

Helenius was, to my eye, an inferior fighter in 2010/11. He didn't have the experience or skills he has today, lacked discipline and hunger and was extremely stiff. Also, when I say Helenius is in the best form of his career that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be at his absolute peak in his next bout. His last two fights were arguably his two best career wins but over 2.5 years will have elapsed since Kownacki-Helenius 1, so while his form is peak I do expect him to be less athletic.

 

I never said AJ wasn't dangerous for Wilder but the difference is that Wilder's handlers would be willing to gamble seeing as Wilder will be 37 post-Helenius and has incurred massive punishment since 2018. AJ has fewer physical miles on the clock and is 4 years younger; he doesn't need 3 losses in a row and 4 in his last 6, including a brutal KO defeat to a faded Wilder (who may be best known for losing to Fury).

I suspect Ruiz will win but it's far from a foregone conclusion. Ruiz looked great against AJ but far less than great against Arreola, Liakhovich and Kevin Johnson, his next best wins. He hasn't fought a southpaw since losing badly to Zhang in the amateurs and has been avoiding Ortiz for years, trying to do so again a few months ago so he could fight a washed kickboxer in Mexico. He clearly doesn't see it as an easy fight.

 

Fantastic. So you'll give Wilder huge credit then if he even steps in the ring with Helenius, let alone beats him...right?

 

5 years ago?

The Helenius who had been creamed by a Wilder victim?

 

"Wilder has bitten off more than he can chew. He thinks that he has found a safe opponent with no punch. But Duhaupas has skills and a chin and is game. He will box circles around the big fraud, and he can hurt Deontay more than Deontay can hurt him." - catchwtboxing

"He (Helenius) would knock Wilder out cold though.

A lot of what you say is true, and I would add that he doesn't get the most out of his jab, and is slow. But,


He's big

He's strong chinned

Good amateur background

Wins over 3 former titlists and a host of good journeymen

Mad power in his right (when healthy) and in good power his hook" - catchwtboxing

 

The lengths people go to to discredit Wilder.

"any good"

If we are being sensible and not polemical there are levels to boxing; even the guys Wilder fought in his first 9 pro fights were killers compared to most of the big guys in your average boxing gym.

Kownacki was a bit better than Martin and Arreola, who despite getting up there in age was still able to break the Compubox record for punches thrown in a 12 round heavyweight fight. Arreola's chin was still sturdy and 21 months later coming off a layoff he gave AJ's conqueror Ruiz a tough fight over 12, fighting off the backfoot(!) Martin is thought of as a bum because he had a bummy fight against AJ where the occasion got to him and he blatantly quit. But one fight should not define his entire career and fighters, especially those as green as Martin was, can improve a lot over time.

Szpilka stepped up against Adamek (Szpilka was the underdog) and won convincingly, also managed to beat Wach post-Wilder. Washington stepped up against Chambers and Helenius (both times as underdog) and won by shut out and KO respectively. Kiladze did not drop Kownacki, whereas he dropped Ajagba and dropped Vykhryst twice before a premature stoppage. To beat all of the guys that Kownacki beat you have to be at a certain level.

Had the injured and/or unmotivated Helenius that fought Duhaupas, Whyte, Bykhautsou and Washington turned up he would have gassed out before the 4th and got flattened by Kownacki. And unlike the past, Helenius managed to keep it together sufficiently well mentally and physically that he won the rematch almost 18 months later coming off a layoff that long, in far more dominant fashion.

 

"Not trying to diminish Wilder at all"

It's completely transparent: "Wilder will have only beaten a guy who has only recently beaten a guy who sucks"

"Sucked" is meaningless drivel. Kownacki would have given Ruiz, Chisora and Whyte very tough fights or beaten them on volume.

"a near shot Arreola"

If he was "near shot" he wouldn't have broken the Compubox record, nor would he have been able to absorb 369 punches from Kownacki, nor would he have given AJ-conqueror Ruiz a 12 round war 21 months later at 40, coming off a layoff exactly that long.

"Adamek was a blown up light heavyweight"

Yet he was one of Vitali's best wins, much like Arreola.

"Szplika would then get crushed in half the time..."

Mike Tyson got crushed in half the time by Danny Williams that it took Lennox Lewis. Szpilka never had a strong chin among his peers and got devastatingly KO'd against Wilder, was out for 18 months. He had a bunch more fights, including KO defeats and KD's suffered, before he fought Chisora at the end of his career, when his chin was totally and utterly shot.

 

"Ruptured/broken eardrum is fake news"

False. Scott stated after the 3rd fight that among various injuries, Wilder had broken his eardrum. This more or less confirmed that Wilder also broke his eardrum in the 2nd fight, which was denied for PR and tactical reasons but didn't work as Fury targeted Wilder's eardrum in the 3rd fight anyway. Fury had also broken both of Scott's eardrums in sparring back in 2013, so he had form for it.

"So will Robert"

Possible age-related decline, inactivity and injuries make the fight more random than it otherwise would be, which favours the underdog, which is Helenius.

"is a positive motivating factor"

Too much pressure is not a good thing, especially considering Wilder's brutal losses. Wilder is always disciplined, focused and motivated anyway.

"To be honest this seems like a stupid fight to take for your comeback"

It's certainly sink or swim.