Much as I like Barkley, I wouldn't count out a Carter-Fernandez ending here. If Barkley does hold up to Carter's punches, Carter goes onto win an uncomfortable decision over a game Barkley. Barkley does have a big size advantage here and Carter could be discouraged, but Barkley probably lacks the "finesse" to pull it off against the sharper puncher. Carter's compact punching would spell trouble for the wide-swinging Barkley.
This sums everything up very well. Dispite the size advantage, Barkley would be beaten to the punch by the quicker, shorter punches of Carter. I think it would go the limit with a Carter decision. Carter could possibly pull a Fernandez or Griffith performance in emulating Nigel Benn, but I think Benn carried more power.