Usually, when I see a devastating fighter like Klitchko going up against a no-hoper like Byrd, Brewster, Brock, etc I am not afraid for the opponent because I know that Vlad will get a good stoppage/KO after some tactics. But Cotto is an animal and will HURT Shane. Shane CAN win and I predict a narrow UD for Mosely. It's times like these when I am glad that these guys are getting millions for this sport.
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Shane needs to jump on Cotto very early and try to hurt him, because I think that'll be his only chance. Cotto will get much stronger as the fight goes on while Shane will only lose the pop in his punches and get tired. I agree with you that Shane could get really damaged and this fight will take a lot out of him. It sucks that it has to happen to such a good guy, but I am cheering for Cotto anyways because I think he is the biggest threat to Mayweather.
Shane needs to blow him out early you are right. he needs to be quicker than Cotto and land before he does. Cotto will get stunned, do a dance, and Mosly needs to follow up with the combos we all love from him. The overhand right is key for shane in this fight. Shane is vulnerable to the body via left hook. Vernon showed us this in the first fight (I understand the headbutt had a lot do with that, but it affected shane nevertheless and that is cotto's money punch)