I did think AJ would beat Wilder on skills alone, but he is so tentative and scared I'm not sure he won't get caught.
It's a Garcia - Gervonta type of situation where talent & physical gifts on paper means little as Wilder eventually chinning him feels inevitable. Course boxing is the theater of the unexpected and AJ may turn the inevitable into the improbable, but he must do it early. He doesn't get Wilder out in 4, he gets got.
On paper AJ spanks Wilder big time. In reality Wilder might just be so cocksure and confident and AJ so timid that he gets blasted by one of Wilder's nukes before he gets his gameplan rolling.
I think Wilder is too unorthodox for AJ. Same for Fury, and while Ruiz and Usyk aren't particularly unorthodox, one is a chunky brawler and the other is an ATG southpaw AJ's achievements are proportional to his skills. He probably still beats anyone who isn't Fury, Wilder, Usyk and a few dark horses