I think Canelo has the style to beat Beterbiev if the stars align.

That would be amazing and great for boxing. I would love to see Canelo take on Beterbiev for Undisputed. It would be a gift for boxing fans and win lose or draw would be sure to be a more dramatic more action packed fight than Beterbiev Bivol was.

 

I would like to see your theory tested. It's certainly not the craziest prediction in the world but I think Canelo could hold his own and possibly win a decision. But Canelo's gas tank would be key. Canelo's gas tank has looked marginally better in recent fights but it's a different situation at Light Heavyweight. The big question is would Canelo have learned from his struggles at Light Heavyweight before, both against Kovalev (very low output over the first 10 rounds and seemingly being outboxed before getting the stoppage) and against Bivol (punching himself out in the first 4 rounds causing him to gas hard over the last 8). The common thread is that Canelo seemignly put on too much weight each time he moved up to Light Heavyweight which caused him to tire more rapidly than when he fought at lower weights.

Against Beterbiev he would certainly need to pace himself better than he did against Bivol, and maybe come in a little bit lighter (like 171 or 172 instead of 174 or 175) to maintain his quickness. I don't think it's advantageous at all for Canelo to come in at the full 175 weight limit because stopping Beterbiev can't be the goal, the goal would be to outbox him and land the more eye catching work on the inside to try to escape with a decision victory. Even a SMW or 171ish Canelo still packs a punch that would be enough to keep Beterbiev honest. But I think the real key for Canelo would be to actually come in around 171 or 172. And we talked about this before, I said a similar thing prior to him fighting Bivol and was proven right at how much he gassed. And most of this forum has made it out to be that Bivol was just in anothe rleague, but the reality is that Canelo just gassed after 4 rounds and that more than anything else the main reason why Bivol won. Not to take anything away from Bivol who fought a great fight and got the best of Canelo but we have to be honest about it. But knowing him he's going to come in at 174ish again and carry too much weight not learning from his past mistakes. But maybe still even coming in heavy again would at least know to pace himself better even and possibly win just enough rounds to win a decision. We'll see if it happens.

 

You hold a strong belief that Canelo can take Beterbiev's punches. IMO Canelo looked like he felt the power of Bivol when they fought. Was it enough to where Canelo was badly hurt? No. But was it enough to get Canelo's respect? Absolutely. Once again, it isn't just about power. Canelo hasn't fought anyone who brings a physical fight outside of maybe James Kirkland. But that's all Kirkland brought. I'm a Canelo fan. I have been watching him since he was 19. That is a horrible style matchup for Canelo. Literally no one amtatuer or pro has kept Beterbiev off unless they moved like crazy. Usyk who was bigger couldn't deter Beterbiev. I don't see a guy who started at 154 pounds keeping a guy off who is a natural light heavyweight that even competed at heavyweight. It reaches a point to where the size becomes too much. The method you believe Canelo could/would win in seems like a suicide mission. He's going to come forward on Beterbiev and beat him up on the inside? You either rate Canelo extremely high or you don't rate Beterbiev high or both.

 

I sort of explored this in my last post (#17) but I would just say that typically I don't make predictions because boxing is just too unpredictable and I don't like going into a fight with an outcome in mind, because that in my mind causes biased scoring.

Case in point, look how many people boldly predicted GGG would mop the floor with Canelo, the first time, then again in the rematch, then we get to the end of a close fight, and you have people crying robbery because they didn't get their way, because it didn't go how they thought they would.

If you remember, before Canelo fought Bivol, I didn't make a bold prediction but I did favor Bivol as I knew that stylistically it would be difficult for Canelo, especially if he gases. I have always thought that Beterbiev would be an easier fight for Canelo to win a decision against, because Beterbiev's best asset (power) plays right into Canelo's best assets (chin, defense, counter punching). Bivol's best assets (quickness, footwork, punch accuracy, good blocking) were always things that Canelo has trouble with.

I think what Smithy's getting at here with this topic, and I would agree is that, for as good as Beterbiev is, he's sort of tailor made for Canelo if we're honest. And he's pushing 40, he's coming off a fight that most felt he was exposed in despite getting the decision, and the only reason why he did win is probably because Bivol fought too negatively. It's also the same reason why Canelo didn't get the win in the first GGG fight despite landing the better shots (he was moving backwards too much, fighting only in spurts in the mid-rounds, i.e. the judges, aside from Byrd, favored aggression, similar to Bivol vs Beterbiev, too much backward movement despite landing the cleaner more eye catching shots) and why (arguably) Canelo won the rematch (story of the fight, Mexican Style, coming forward, throwing and landing more heavy power punches, etc). Smithy gets this and sees a 40 year old Beterbiev who perhaps is more past it than Canelo at this point, could be the kind of stylistic match that Canelo would prefer at Light Heavyweight. It would be a tremendous opportunity for Canelo and wouldn't it be something if Canelo captures Undisputed at Light Heavyweight vs Beterbiev than he could defend Undisputed against Bivol. I'm not sure it would happen but I would say it is a distinct possibility.

 

“I don't like going into a fight with an outcome in mind”

You mean you don’t want to ruffle any feathers.

You clearly have an analytical mind though, that analysis should culminate to a hypothetical result surely.

 

Well I have a strong belief that he can take Beterbiev's punches because I know how good Canelo's chin is and how good his defense is. But if there's anyone who could hurt Canelo at 168 or 175, we've always said that it would be Beterbiev. But it's also unclear at this point if Beterbiev is as dangerous of a puncher as he was a few years ago. We saw for example, GGG go from a KO machine at 32 who could seemingly knock anyone out to a guy who couldn't get KOs anymore a few years later. Granted the level of competition played a role in that (fighting Jacobs than Canelo, harder guys to KO) but if you'd ask GGG fans there also was a slowing down of GGG between that time, and him becoming past prime.

Well Beterbiev is 4-5 years older than GGG was in that timeframe when that happened but the same could be true. Is a 40 year old Beterbiev who maybe is finally starting to slow down the KO machine he was 3-5 years ago? Beterbiev's age, being 40 by the time they fight, could be a factor that makes him easier to beat than maybe he would have been several years ago. Canelo who many see as no longer in his prime, though I'm not so sure about that, he seems to be dominating the best in his weight class, but Canelo could be getting Beterbiev at the right time where he's coming off a fight that the majority of fans think he lost, to a great fighter in Bivol but to a guy who was content fighting him off the backfoot from the outside. Canelo's style these days is much more fan friendly and judge friendly when you consider that judges in big fights do seem to favor the come forward aggressive fighter. And Beterbiev against Bivol while he was the come forward fighter, he wasn't really going all out or loading up with big shots on Bivol, he wasn't really (seemingly) trying to hurt Bivol, just to do enough to control the action and seemingly out volume or out ring general him.

That's very true, and Bivol certainly didn't take the approach of trying to keep Beterbiev "off". His strategy was to move, move and try to potshot or time him from the outside, and it worked to a large extent, but the judges didn't like the negativity of his style.

Canelo, since he moved up to Super Middle from Middleweight, has been mostly fighting in a seek and destroy come forward style. So Canelo is going to inherently get more love from the judges by taking the fight to Beterbiev even if he isn't throwing as much. All he has to do is come forward, while being defensively responsible, land a couple of big clean shots each round, and pick off or slip Beterbiev's harder to see shots. And I think Beterbiv will have a tougher time landing body shots on Canelo than he was able to against Bivol, because when you're chasing an opponent you can see the body shot openings easier, when you're fighting inside against a smaller guy, it's harder to dip down and land those body shots, meanwhile Canelo as the smaller guy would have an easier time landing body shots because he's fighting a bigger guy who's body is right in his punching range. And the uppercut, Canelo could find a home for that uppercut.

No one's better suited to take the fight to Beterbiev than Canelo, except maybe Benavidez, due to size and being able to just out work him. But Canelo's combination of skills chin and power makes it an interesting fight.

All your doubts about what Canelo could do to Beterbiev have merit and it could turn out that you're right. But I think this is a dight the boxing world needs to see. Lets see your theory tested in the ring. I'm not convinced Canelo could dethrone Beterbiev but as a boxing fan and a fan of Canelo I want to see it, I want to see what happens because as with most fights, we just don't know what will happen until we see it in the ring.

 

Perhaps if it gets made official, we can go into greater depth. For now it's all hypothetical but I do hope it happens and if it does I'm sure we'll have plenty of time to discuss it in more depth.

 

Beterbiev, at 40, with those knee issues is no longer the fighter he once was. We could see it against Bivol but Canelo is not the guy to beat the LHW champ. Canelo is too small, won't hit hard enough and has his own punch output issues.

 

I think Benavidez could outwork Beterbiev. He’s got the output and the unbridled tenacity to get the points decision.

 

Canelo wouldn’t be able to deal with the punch output or physicality.

 

Maybe you're right, but there's only one way to find out. Are you still interested in seeing it?

 

Canelo isn't a challenge but financially getting paid more for an easy fight is a no brainer for Beterbiev.

On one hand the Canelo fight isn't going anywhere no reason Beterbiev can't put Canelos lights out at 42. On the other hand beating Canelo up in front of a massive audience means Beterbievs final fights will print money.

 

Canelo has shamelessly ducked Benavidez for a couple of years , he'll dodge a fight with Beterbiev too. If by some magic he gets in the ring with Beterbiev Canelo doesn't move well enough to avoid Artur like Bivol did and he'll be forced to fight,,,and lose by TKO .

 

By "style" I assume you mean points decision robbery?

 

If the stars have to align then no.