Pac is too shifty. He will have some early round success, but then the Pacman goes to work after round 3.
I actually ran this through the TBCB sim, and with several different variables concerning Shane's condtition/career stage, etc... Pac wins in every scenario in an average of 10 rounds. Mosley did lost every fight out of 10 when I put "post-prime" and "aging and inconsistent"... He also lost every fight out of 10 when I put "prime" and "aging and inconsistent". He won 3 of 10 in an average of 7 rounds when I put "post-prime" and "top condition"... This is consistent with my thoughts going into the fight. If Pac wins (more likely), it will be a decision or late stoppage. Not KO. Stoppage. If Shane wins, it will be mid-rounds KO.
I only hope Shane does not get hurt in this fight. If he ends up looking like Cotto and Margarito and ODLH I will be pretty pissed. If Shane stops Manny it will be when pac gets cocky and shows he can take punches when resting on the ropes.
Because Shane has very fast and powerful hands and is known for catching little guys with big shots. And in recent years those big shots come early! Manny has never fought anyone close to this level of speed and power in his entire career. Nobody!
Really! His fast and very powerful hands must have left him against Mora the great Contender fighter:-(