I think that Ward will easily beat Dawson. Easily.

I can only see one winner in that fight and think its a one sided affair.

The fights at SMW, where Dawson hasnt fought for years.

Dawson has no SMW pedigree of note. None. In fact Dawson jumped out of SMW to miss Calzaghe when he was almost in line to fight him. People may say Dawson wanted to fight Calzaghe, but look at the full picture. Dawson wins the WBO NABO SMW title to line himself up, then jumps up to SMW, yet now years later he can fight at SMW. Odd.

Dawsons best wins are over much older fighters, consider Johnson/Tarver are 14/15 years older than Dawson, and both have been very exposed. Yet some felt Johnson beat Dawson and at SMW, Johnson isnt very good at all and lost more than he has won.
Dawsons best win is a MD over a fighter 18 years older than him.
Adamek wasnt a good LHW at all, and I dont take much notice from that. Who did Adamek beat at LHW? He went to the limit with Briggs twice who was KOd by a jab.

Ward likes to fight in close and I think he will hold Dawson and work in close where I dont think Chad will be comfortable.

Look at the form line when Dawson fought someone who would jump in against him in Pascal.

I think people get fooled because they recognise the name Tarver and call it a big win.

Neither has fought a prime top fighter in their division, but Ward has fought in better class and especially at SMW.

I said that Pascal would beat Dawson, due to the fact Dawsons wins were not over prime top fighters, and that hasnt changed.
There is only one winner in this fight and afterwards people will claim its an amazing win, but you read it here first.

Easy win for Ward over a fighter who isnt a top SMW.

 

Before Froch beat Bute, many felt Ward would lose to Bute and Ward seemed very wary of Bute and didnt want to know.
With the fact that Ward isnt a massive puncher, I think Ward/Bute is 50/50 at this time.

Fact is Chad has no SMW pedigree of note

 

Would you consider Dawson a top SMW? Thats where the fight is.

Some fighters just cant compete in the same way in other divisions.
Look at how G Johnson is world class at LHW, yet at SMW is a journeyman/gatekeeper where he has lost more than he has won at the weight. Just look at the fighters Johnson couldnt beat at SMW