I want to believe, but how can Floyd fail where Miguel Cotto succeeded?

I am praying for a Shane Mosley victory on Saturday. I have always admired and rated Shane Mosley, not only because he is a skilled and exciting fighter, but also because he embodies the values that I think are so important in boxing. Shane wants to fight the best fighters available and has always pursued the toughest fights out there. I still recall his interview after the fight with Winky where he was asked why he bothered fighting Wink when he could have made much more money against a more suitable opponent in Tito Trinidad, and he said he had chose Wright because Wright was viewed as the top man in the division at the time. That to me is a man who symbolizes a different time in boxing, a better time, where greatness and legacy and integrity and honesty were not forgotten or disregarded in the chase for the dollar. Of course, it helps that Shane is a fantastic boxer as well. He looked like a fearsome fighter at lightweight, and I genuinely believe his first win over Oscar De La Hoya was the best win of the decade 2000-2010 (Oscar being technically undefeated at the time, as he clearly beat Tito).

However, my overwhelming emotion ahead of Saturday is hope, not expectation or belief.

And that's not because I think Floyd Mayweather is the flawless, infallible, invincible Zen Master boxer that Floyd's own relentless self-propaganda has convinced so many people he is. I think Floyd is eminently beatable at welterweight. Were this a stronger era in the 147 class (like it was 10-15 years ago with Oscar, Shane, Tito, Ike, later Vernon Forrest, and of course the mercurial Sweet Pea Whitaker, a superior fighter to Floyd in pretty much every way), then Floyd would not still have his zero. Well, he probably would as he would have talked his way around fighting any of them the same way he did for so long with Tszyu, Mosley, Williams, Margarito and Cotto. For me Floyd is an inferior fighter at welterweight if you compare the current pot-shotting version to his superfeatherweight peak.

Consider for a minute - Floyd lost more rounds to Zab Judah(3? 4?) than Manny Pacquiao did in both the Miguel Cotto fight(1 or 2) and the Joshua Clottey fight(0) - and both Cotto and Clottey stopped Judah.

But I don't want to get into a discussion on Floyd's ability, that's not the intention of this thread, the fact is that Floyd is an excellent fighter right now irrespective of his flaws/weaknesses.


My point is that I do not really believe deep down that a Shane Mosley win is going to happen on Saturday, as much as I want it to. The reason: Miguel Cotto.

Whenever I watch the Margarito fight, I feel like Shane can do it. Whenever I see Nazim on TV or hear him speak, I feel like he can guide Shane to the win.

And then I watch Mosley vs Cotto again. And I know it's not for happening. Miguel Cotto outjabbed and outboxed Shane. By the end of the fight, Shane looked exhausted.

And it really can't be debated that Floyd is a vastly superior boxer to Miguel Cotto in almost every way. People think that Cotto is stronger and more powerful than Floyd, but I'm not so sure about that. I think Floyd is deceptively strong. He never looked outmuscled by Oscar, and Oscar probably had a decent weight advantage on the night, I'd say maybe 6-8lbs. Miguel was not a great puncher at 147 the way he was at 140, his punches didn't put a dent in his best welterweight opponents. Floyd obviously is not a powerpuncher at all, but I doubt he can't match Cotto for impact at 147. Other than that, what does Cotto do better than Floyd? He cuts off the ring better, but he wasn't cutting off the ring much against Shane and that won't be a tactic Floyd will use anyway. He probably punches to the body better, but Floyd knows how to throw a bodyshot pretty well too.

Ultimately, Cotto edged Shane, and Floyd is everything that Cotto is and much more, from a boxing perspective. Cotto stood up to Shane's strength and power, and I'd argue that Floyd has a better chin than Miguel and is just as strong.

People are getting carried away saying that Shane is bigger and stronger. Look at the physical stats, Shane has only slight advantages in most areas, advantages that would be seen as the standard differences between any two fighters in the same division. Oscar vs B-Hop this ain't. It's like when people claimed Ricky Hatton was bigger than Manny Pacquiao - yes he had a range of slight physical advantages, but none so big that would really mean anything in the ring. Both Shane and Floyd have been at welter for years now, both are very comfortable there. And I doubt Shane will have a big weight advantage either. Floyd was 152 on fightnight vs Marquez, and that was after he weighed in on 146. It's likely he will be between 152 and 155 in the ring, and I think Shane usually weighs around 156-158, so the difference is going to be pretty much negligible.


Basically, I don't believe that Shane has either the (a) stamina or the (b) legs to be the man to beat Floyd Mayweather.

If Shane tired vs Cotto at the age of 36, he is going to tire vs Mayweather at the age of 38. And I'd bet Floyd will be a lot fitter, fresher and faster at the end of the fight vs Shane than Miguel Cotto was.

When Floyd is faced with a seriously dangerous opponent, as he was in the second Castillo fight (conscious of the fact that Castillo beat him first time out), Floyd fights the safest way to ensure victory - he runs, flicks out punches to catch the judges' eyes, runs some more, and gradually runs the clock down so that the final bell goes before his slower opponent has managed to pin him down and do any damage. If Floyd thinks he can't win by engaging and fighting (which is what happened in the 1st JLC fight), then he plays it safe. Safe to the point of boringly and unnecessarily over-cautious.

And Shane Mosley is even more dangerous to Floyd than Jose Luis Castillo was. The danger of Castillo was that he could get close to Floyd and outfight him again, but there was no serious danger of a knockout. The one thing that Shane Mosley has that makes this a real fight is that he does indeed have the power that can make a difference. It's easy to criticize Margarito now, but that man ate up Miguel Cotto's best punches all night like they were nothing. And Shane just blew him away. We saw Floyd get the old spaghetti legs from DeMarcus Corley, so we know he isn't Jake LaMotta in the chin department. And Floyd will know that too. But rather than giving me hope, it just makes me aware that Floyd is going to run and flick, run and flick, and take absolutely no chances whatsoever.


It's going to be dull, it's going to be a performance that only the General Forum Floydettes (who claim Floyd "schooled" Oscar) will acclaim as great, but it is going to be a Floyd victory.

Sadly. Though I will still be rooting for Sugar of course.

What do you guys think? :bbb




PS: The Shane Mosley of 2000 who beat Oscar, would beat Floyd at welterweight, for sure.

 

Cotto is a different fighter then Floyd. I think what confused Shane in that fight was the fact that he was punching downward throughout. Cotto hunches over when he fights, and Shane didn't realize how effective an uppercut would have been. That won't be the case in this fight, plus Floyd is lot more cagey and reserved then Cotto is.

I think if Shane fights a determined fight, goes to the body and really emphasizes his strength, he can win it. It really depends on how much he has left; we haven't see him fight in a year and half.

 

nice read man..and nice analysis.

anything can happen inside the ring.

 

I'll have to review the COTTO vs SHANE fight. I'll check back with you. I wasn't impress with COTTO that night btw.

SHANE had an off night.

 

Cotto caught Shane off-guard because of his speed and Shane wasn't able to make any adjustments until late in the fight when Cotto had enough rounds in the bank. He basically outboxed for a decent part of the fight.

Shane has to try to bully Floyd around the ring the same way DLH did to have a chance but it's still not going to be enough.

 

Where did you get that Mayweather was 152 on fight night vs Marquez?:huh

 

The Ring magazine.

 

Great read. We can't pray for lighter loads, just stronger backs.

 

Agree for the most part and see it going pretty much as you laid out. I too will be willing Shane on but I fear ultimately in vain.

The one thing most Mosely supporters seem to be hanging their hat on is Nazim. I like richardson and expect him to come with a decent strategy but shane to still fall a bit short. I think with Nazim in his corner Shane might have won the Cotto fight, Jacks advise between rounds was awful but I don't reckon it will be enough for him to beat Floyd.

 

I hate to say this but SHANE looks to be slowing down.FLoy will be too fast, the angles, distance, and floyd's impeccable defence.I don't see how mosley can cope with it. I am seeing a schooling by FLOY once again.

FLOY is too fast for Mosley.

 

Great post. But I must say, Popkins, when you believe in someone as much as you believe in Mosley, and are rooting for that person...NEVER SAY OUT LOUD THAT YOU THINK THEY WILL LOSE, because if they win, you will be the one looking foolish. I've never admitted this, but I actually thought Cotto would beat Pacquiao. I thought he was way too strong, too accustomed to the weight. But you know what? I never, NEVER admitted it to anyone, and I especially never made a thread dedicated to the fact that I was supporting Pac, but thought he was gonna lose.

With that said, I agree with most of what you said. I think Mayweather will win, but all in all, I don't really care WHO wins. I guess I'm slightly leaning towards wanting to see SSM win, only because I want to see what PBF's excuses will be...maybe a loss will give him some badly needed humility.

 

good and easy read regardless of who you root for. not a word wasted.

that is all

 

Mosley had a very bad game plan going in with Cotto, as he was always looking for the big single shots instead of simply power-boxing, throwing constant combos when in range. On the other hand, I didn't think Cotto could box so well and respect that game plan to perfection like he did. Normally Mosley should have outboxed Cotto if he wasn't focusing too much on outpowering him.

If Mosley has the stamina, he needs to keep his workrate up and let his hands go when in range versus Mayweather. He shouldn't worry about landing power shots but just rather consistently land anywhere he can. It's the accumulation of Mosley's punches that could make a difference later in the fight.