Wouldn't be a major upset for the reasons posted by other posters. Ward might not be a strong enough hitter to push Abraham off balance. That, and Ward prefers to fight inside where Abraham may be able to make contact often due to being smaller. It would be a minor upset I suppose. For the simple fact that while he doesn't hit very hard, he is strong enough to muscle fellow 168lbers around the ring. He *SHOULD* be too strong and too skilled for Abraham to deal with.
I would say Major upset. He looked very very one dimensional with Froch outboxing him. I can't imagine what Ward who is more complete than Froch will do to him. Midway rounds of the Froch/Abraham fight, I lost hope for Abraham. I don't think he will ever be good anymore. At 168, he struggles with the elite guys and at 160 he would get schooled by the likes of Martinez, Lemieux, Pirog, Golovkin.
I think Ward beats AA,but i agree with all the points you've made,especially the point about Ward having never been caught clean. Nearly forget what the thread was about lol,i don't think it would be a huge upset,as i'm sure a lot of people still remain unconvinced about how good Ward is,he's pretty much had things all his own way so far.He clearly beat Kessler,but he'd never have gotten away with the dirty tactics in most contests,and how will he perform away from home ?
Ward should be a clear favorite.. Ward seems to be a very good fighter and very effective at what he does. You never know what happens when he fights someone dirtier than himself and he actually eats some leather..