If Ali hadn't been forced to retire in 1967, who is the first man to beat him, and how early on?

IMO, the only person who could have beaten Ali from 1967-1970 and for several years thereafter was Ali. By this I mean, if he hadn't been exiled I don't know if he could have maintained the pace mentally to keep himself in the condition he had achieved in the years leading up to his exile. Until then, he'd been training all his life and that grind had to have taken a mental toll, so maybe his conditioning would have tapered off anyway as it did with Jack Johnson, Joe Louis, and Jack Dempsey. On the other hand, it can be argued that the lapse in serious training from 1967-1970 was the main reason he had so much trouble with guys like Norton and Frazier after his comeback. IMO, if he had been able to continue with his boxing career AND MAINTAIN HIS DISCIPLINE by continuously staying in shape as he had done during the years leading up to his exile, Frazier and Norton would never have been able to defeat him. When he came back in 1970, he had lost the momentum and the drive to stay in shape. At that stage of his career he was no longer a conditioning freak on the order of Mayweather and Hopkins, so he wasn't able to last as long. He slowed down, took a lot of punishment, and you know the rest. As to who would have been the first to beat him if he hadn't been exiled and he slacked off in his training, then maybe Frazier or Norton would have been the earliest challengers with a chance to beat him just like they actually did, but really all this is way too far down the path of idle speculation. Who knows what Ali would have done during those years? In addition, the distractions of his Muslim religion, the black civil rights movement, and the Viet War protests would still have been with him whether he was in exile or not.

 

By 1969 Joe Frazier would have beaten him regardless. He was peaking then and Ali was always gonna be vulnerable to Joe and especially his style and determination. Ali would also have always underestimated Joe Frazier until he felt the sting of losing to him.

 

If Muhammad Ali had not been banished from boxing in 1967 he would have beaten Joe Frazier, who was the no.1 contender at that time. This would have been if Yank Durham was would have allowed this, he did not want Joe to fight Ali, stating Joe was too green. Joe would have gone the 15 rounds, missed a lot but Joe was a good courageous fighter. But I agree that by 1969, Joe would have learned a valuable lesson from the first fight to win the rematch. As for Ali being better in 1974, I have to disagree, the year before, he got his jaw broken by Ken Norton, his Rope A Dope that helped him win the title from George Foreman did cause later neurological issues. So please William Walker do not get mad, you only watched him on You Tube, I have followed him since 1965, there was a huge difference like night and day, the 1964-1967 Ali was far better than the 1974 edition who was very vulnerable. Also if Ali had not been banned his victims would have included Floyd Patterson, again, Thad Spencer, Oscar Bonavena,Buster Mathis, Jerry Quarry, and your hero, Jimmy Ellis. Eduardo Corletti would have been another Ali victim.

 

I feel Norton from '73 onwards always would be extremely tricky for Ali. Of course, Foreman around that time would also be dangerous if Ali took him too lightly.

Not saying something couldn't have happened before that (any given night and all that), but Norton would definitely be my nr 1 pick for someone to dethrone an Ali who never was exiled.

 

I think its' an intriguing thought if Yancey had tried to duck a title shot even though Joe was the nr 1 contender. That would be hard to do at that time, when there were no belts to take refuge in. My guess is that they would have faced off around the time that Joe faced Mathis in reality.

Maybe not a rematch already in '69, but rather '70 or '71. In terms of his ability Ali would probably be at his absolute peak by then, but he could also be getting complacent.

 

Assuming he would not get lazy prior to facing them, most likely either Frazier or Norton (Or both). Frazier constantly bobbed and weaved, slipping Ali's jab and forcing him to the ropes. Ali was a very rhythmic fighter, and Frazier's way of bobbing and weaving had no rhythm and it upset Ali's rhythm in return. Moreover, Ali did not know how to throw an uppercut, and Frazier took advantage of this, he was already far shorter than Ali, but his bobbing and weaving made him an even lower target, forcing Ali to throw the uppercut and leaving his right side exposed to a left hook, and in Frazier's case, the best left hook in Heavyweight history. Ali might have been faster and elusive before the exile, but the stylistic problem was always there and it would not be nullified due to speed. Ali MIGHT have won against Frazier since he was much faster than in any of their real fights, but to suggest that Frazier would not have a lot success is wrong, he would have thrown Ali into deep waters. 50/50 fight I can't choose.

In Norton's case, he was even worse stylistically for Ali than Frazier was, where Frazier relied on using Ali's weaknesses, Norton relied on beating Ali at his own game, AKA the jabbing game. The orthodox way a Boxer carries his right hand is in front of his jaw, so that when you jab the right hand is there to parry the opponent's jab. Ali did not do it that way, he carried it to his side, but because Ali had one of the best jabs ever, as well as no one daring to go in a jabbing contest with him, he got away with it. So Norton relied on parrying the jab while throwing one in return and moving his head offline, upsetting Ali's rhythm and making him miss. and that's pretty much how he did it in all 3 fights, Ali could just never figure him out and adapt, even though prime Ali was better overall than his 70's self, he was not magically smarter back then and would not have figured it out. Not to mention that Norton would have faced Ali AFTER Frazier, who was cleaning the division in a brutal fashion like Louis, Liston and Tyson did. He would have just considered Norton another name on his resume, another Folley or Chuvalo, instead of a huge threat and a great win like Frazier, which would have obviously affected the result. I think Norton wins and then loses a close rematch.

 

Everything here basically.

 

I did know that Muhammad Ali was at his absolute peak in 1967, but remember a title defense against Oscar Bonavena was scheduled for May 27 1967 in Tokyo, Japan. He refused induction into a wasteful war on April 28 1967. He was stripped of his title the same day, as well as losing his boxing license. He was convicted of Draft Evasion on June 20 1967, sentenced to 5 years in prison, and fined $10,000. He appealed the conviction but was not vindicated until June 28 1971 by the U.S Supreme court, unanimously. But being banished for 43 months is a long time. When he came back in Oct 1970, his skills that he had before the forced exile had eroded. But Yank Durham was very shrewd, he did not want Joe Frazier as he put it, in with professor Clay in 1967.

 

Frazier still beats him, but perhaps earlier in 68 and again in 69...Ali then retires and is a footnote in history ranked outside of the top 10 along with Liston and Dempsey. The exile actually enhances his legacy

 

Think so too. Looks like the most plausible scenario.

For those who think Frazier beats Ali 68-70, better watch the FOTC again to see how close the fight was for ten rounds after even THAT stationary Ali tired. A young Ali in 1969 with legs and stamina makes Frazier look pretty bad.
Believe it would toke some more years for an upset with Ken Norton etc.

 

Yeah, this is one belief where logic plays little part. If an Ali six months out of a 3,5 year exile could run Frazier that close, and beat him two times later, there is no good reason to believe that Ali would have lost to him if not for that exile.

It could have happened, it could have been an off night for Ali but not for Joe, but the odds are firmly in Ali's favour. There is no reasonable way around that.

 

I think Frazier gets him by 70 or 71

And then Norton later on for sure gets him

He starts losing as soon as his athleticism declines

But Frazier is someone that I see who could get him even when he was an athletic marvel