If Ali-Holmes happened 4 years before it actually did?

Ali would win by a late stoppage, or at worst, 10-5 decision.

 

Ali would take it.

 

Holmes claims he could have beaten Ali in '75 for what it's worth.

Ali by decision.

 

ali would win ...... i have holmes/rodney bobick on the ali/frazier 3 undrcard on dvd ....no way in hell that version of holmes beats ali of thrilla in manilla ...

 

energie, with all respect the Thrilla was '75, 5 years before Holmes-Ali took place.

This is an interesting question posed by the OP. From '75 onwards as each year passes the pendulum swings from Ali's favour to Holmes' favour, imo - Ali was getting older, Holmes was getting better. From '78 onwards I would make Holmes a favourite over Ali - I don't see a way that the Ali of Spinks vintage beating the '78 Holmes of Shavers 1 & Norton.

The question is - at what point does the torch pass?

I agree with energie that Thrilla Ali beats Rodney Bobick Holmes, but post Manila? I'm really not sure. Post Manila, with each year Ali deteriorates & Holmes picks up more experience.

76-77 is where things are muddy for me.



Had Ali fought Holmes at Yankee Stadium in September '76 instead of Norton, was Larry experienced enough to deal with Ali, possibly. Holmes knew a lot from their sparring sessions, so it's possible. Holmes would also have presented a different set of problems than Norton posed...and Ali was deteriorating.

The question for me in 76 was whether Holmes was mature enough to deal with the occasion, his forst world title fight, against Ali, with all the pressure and Ali mind games that that brings...I'm not sure.

My guess in '76 is that Ali-Holmes is VERY close, Ali picks up a somewhat disputed decision, Holmes becomes a more mature and better fighter for the experience & Ali doesn't give Larry a rematch in the same way he didn't give Norton a 4th fight.

I think the Ali that beat Shavers in Sep' '77 loses to Holmes clearly on points & not even the judges can rescue him, a la Spinks 1.

 

Ali never stops Holmes. He might win a decision in 76. Very close though. Probably the last year he could match up with Larry.

 

Fours years prior to his loss to Holmes (TKOby10), Ali won a very controversial decision over Ken Norton in their 3rd fight. Five months before that, he was lucky to get the decision over Jimmy Young. Six months before that he went to war with Joe Frazier in their 3rd fight.

Holmes has a good chance but I think Ali would pull off a very close, maybe even questionable decision. Holmes would get better though.

 

the big variable in my mind is how seriously would Ali take a young Larry Holmes. He was bloated and slow against Young, but I think he was probably in about the best condition he could get into at that time for Norton.

 

In 1976,Ali would have won via a fairly comprehensive decision.


Holmes would have been stopped had they fought in '75


Muhammad would have lost from '77 onwards

 

I don't think a 70's Ali beats a prime Holmes. The FOTC Ali might have had 50/50 odds of winning a decision against Larry at his pinnacle, but truthfully I'd need a 1967 Muhammad to feel comfortable placing my money down on him.

 

very close fight
ali wins a controversial decision due to more eyecatching blows

 

I think Ali would have won a decision. He was fading but still had something left. Holmes at this point had not fought any contenders and had not fought past 10 rounds. I think Ali could dominate the championship rounds. Remember in Sept. 76, Ali had enough left to edge Norton. This is the version Holmes would be fighting. In 78, Holmes barely edged a Ken Norton two years removed from the Ali fight.

 

Ali would not be fighting prime Holmes. We're talking about 1976 Holmes.

 

1976 Ali would be very difficult to beat, short of a stoppage.
He had his operatives working in the backroom arraigning "gift" decisions.
I doubt if Holmes could compete with that.