If BJ is to beat Fitch, what must he do?

His only real chance is to either win a decision or to (T)KO him. He's not submitting him. He's not taking Fitch down either.

So, really, the only place for him to win is standing while maintaining a distance because he doesn't want to clinch with Fitch.

Even then, he's at a 4' reach disadvantage. He can't jab like he could against T-Rex Sherk (which, supposedly is the fight that garnered him so much attention for his "vaunted" striking...).

Can he win? Sure, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

BJ isn't a welter and that's a big call in a game where you fight with multiple disciplines.
even if he wins he won't beat GSP

BJ's a great fighter - a GREAT fighter - but he's not great at welter

 

Best bet is too strike & use TD defense, I think Fitch WILL eventually get BJ to the ground but the longer BJ avoids it & the more damage he can do on the feet until it happens then the better chance of pulling a sub when it does go to ground.

I find this on hard to call personally so I`ll go with Penn by stoppage (sub or TKO, not sure yet) since I like him better & its not as unlikely as some think, I wont be shocked.

 

Rewatch the first round of the GSP fight.

Now I'm a huge fan of BJ, but I'm not a delusional nuthugger. I know his weaknesses and strengths.

The fight with Fitch: When I first heard aobut it, my immediate reaction was that it was an AWFUL fight for BJ and that the UFC must want to teach him a lesson. But the more I'm looking at it, the more chance I give BJ.

BJ was worn down by bigger wrestlers twice in his career. In the rematches against Hughes and GSP.

Hughes rematch - In this fight A) BJ was out of shape, just look at the difference in his body from that fight and compare it to the 3rd fight with hughes. Not even comparable. Also, he still won the first 2 rounds against Hughes which is all he needs to do against Fitch. And lastly, he broke his rib...which is due to Hughes striking him, but also not guarunteed to happen in every fight, and if he doesn't break that rib, he survives (still loses round) but survives 3rd round. And that's all he has to do against Fitch.

GSP rematch - He was able to fight off GSPs takedowns in the first round. He wasn't able to do any damage to GSP because GSP's standup/kickboxing had improved so much. Fitch is not nearly as good of a striker as GSP and not as good at takedowns. So my take from this, is that BJ will have a good chance of avoiding Fitch's takedowns in the first and there's no doubt in my mind BJ will win the standup. So 1st round to BJ....only 2 left. And if BJ can fight him off in the 2nd round as well.....BJ wins the decision. :deal

I think all BJ needs to do is fight his fight actually. Try to stay off the fence of course, but if he bags two rounds of crisp jabs and counters and stuffed shots....he has the fight in the bag.. remember this is a 3 round fight, not a 5 rounder.

 

i'm a big fan of BJ too but weight matters in MMA much more than boxing....

try being a multiple discipline fighter attuned to one weight and see what 3 tenths of a second reaction time and a stronger opponent does to your takedown defence.

i think BJ's been in the right division the whole time and even if he does beat fitch, it's not going to happen against GSP.

it just won't

 

BJ needs to force standup, hopefully he can land some big shots to make Fitch tentative, and force Fitch to telegraph his takedowns.. B.J. should avoid the clinch and the fence, try to force the fight in the middle of the ring at the same time.

I think he has a decent shot at stuffing a shoot if he land on Fitch. He does as I explained he can take advantage of positioning during a telegraphed takedown and mount Fitch. I think B.J. has a chance to sub Fitch if he's able to rattle him and take the mount, where he can work some gnp and maybe take the back.. B.J. is great at chokes.

The way I see it though, Fitch will walk him down, get something like a body lock or successful shot, BJ ends up on his back and is basically suffocated and sapped.

He's just so much smaller than Fitch, who looks like he's going to be 20+ lbs heavier, Fitch looks like he belongs at middle. Basically BJ is fighting a great wrestler who has two weight classes on him. It's a rough ass match.

 

He will never beat GSP.

 

BJ was 167 with his shoes and jeans on atsch

 

Yep, and he looked plump too. Fitch looked gaunt as hell. He's going to come in hydrated and look like Fitch Diesel... Can only hope he cut too much and wont have enough in the tank after re-hydrating. But, he's a wrestler, he likely has this aspect down to the science that it is.

 

fitch and Bj always look like that. some fighters just don't 'chisel' out well during training.

it doesn't mean they haven't trained well and are ready

 

thats right. so what is he doing at welter?

 

BJ has looked better. But I agree about Fitch.

 

To challenge himself. What if Shields beats GSP? Then BJ vs Shields. And he can always challenge GSP and you know what, this is MMA and **** happens. So maybe "never" is the wrong word.