In Tokyo Douglas produced the right tactics, right speed, right attitude, right feints, right footwork to beat the very best version of Tyson. If he produces that 10 times he wins 10 times no matter how well Tyson prepares or who is wiping his face between rounds. If douglas cant produce all those things again then he cant beat Tyson again. it is as simple as that.
Let's look at it for what it was....Douglas caught Tyson on his worst night. It's rather that simple.
As in, that night repeats 10 times? Douglas, 10/10. Tyson was listless, and fought like a beaten man after round 1. Douglas was amped, and ready to to the bone. 10 rematches, with the factors thrown into the wind? Tyson probably comes unprepared a couple times, but I think he'd win the majority, and I don't think Douglas matches his own stellar level of conditioning and hunger without the perfect storm of tragedy he endured.
If they were to replay that night 10 I think Douglas wins at least 9 times. Under difrent term. I can see Tyson winning.
Same preperarion and condition, Douglas mostly wins, but Tyson wins a few times. Tyson wins one or two times out of ten. Douglas got a little overconfident and got nailed. Long'ish count, and right at the end of a round. Different circumstances, maybe Tyson could have closed the show. But Douglas was well prepared, largely fought an excellent fight, and had assets to trouble Mike; Mike didn't prepare. And like Angelo Dundee said, Douglas wasn't the first guy who troubled Mike, he was the first guy who didn't change after Mike hit him. Mike at his best vs. Tokyo Douglas, I'd pick Mike five to seven times out of ten.
Tyson wins 9 out of 10 times Buster Douglas most likely would turn up out of shape after one fight and Tyson more than likely would turn up in shape. Look at how Douglas turned up against Holyfield, he most likely would have turned up like that even if Tyson was in the other corner. Then compare the shape Tyson turned up for his next big fight (Ruddock). I know he beat Stewart and Tillman but those fights were too short to tell anything. Buster Douglas turned up for ONE night in his whole career and it happened to be the same night that Tyson happened to be banging japanese girls.
I think these are some good points. There seems to be a double standard when analyzing this fight IMO. Most people seem to focus solely on what was distracting Tyson, but overlook or excuse the distractions Douglas had, which were arguably far worse. The fact that Douglas could dominate Tyson so thoroughly, even despite fighting on Tyson's terms in the last 3 rounds, suggests there was as much a stylistic problem for Tyson as there was a preparation problem in that fight. Sure, Douglas had a mediocre chin and inconsistent heart, so Tyson would always have a shot at KOing him. But Douglas also had assets that could potentially trouble any version of Tyson. I would argue that Douglas had the best punch variety of any opponent Tyson had previously fought, and especially the best uppercut - a punch that Tyson had always left himself open for, even when in top shape.
He could've come in without being sicked by the flu, distracted by his girlfriend's illness, and grieving the death of his mother. He became increasingly reckless and overconfident as the fight progressed, which led to him walking into that uppercut in the 8th round. In the next round, he practically abandoned his successful strategy and stood toe-to-toe with Tyson, and essentially beat him at his own game. Maybe he finishes him off. Or maybe he walks into big shot himself that stops him in his tracks. You could just as well ask, what if Douglas had kept his poise and didn't give Tyson the opportunity to land that punch in the 8th round? Maybe the fight goes on without incident, and Douglas finishes him off even sooner
If every circumstance was exactly the same it would play out exactly the same way, as all fights would. If we're contemplating the alternative possibilities that could happen in theory, I suspect Douglas would win at least 8 or 9 times out of ten. He may win every-time. If Tyson is in a better condition or state he's just going to last the distance and his chance of winning by stoppage increases at a marginal rate. I'd say Douglas still wins 6 to 7 times out of ten. Tokyo Douglas was the most fluid SHW on film. Terrific performance.
When you say fight ten times I'm not assuming you mean consecutive rematches but if it had happened ten times. Sort of like a Looper scenario with boxing (The movie, kind of). Otherwise, things change obviously.
I don't buy that Douglas fought the perfect fight. He just fought a tremendously positive one. He was full of self-belief, was well-conditioned, and let his hands go. He wasn't disciplined with range, or his guard, and he swung too wide at times. Douglas could have absolutely fought better than he did. Not to discount the performance, but people talk like he didn't do anything wrong. He was making mistakes in there, one of which caused a flash KD.