I'm thinking of this fight, watching the countdown, and am more convinced than ever that B-Hop will win this fight. The Pavlik camp seem wary - Jack Leow says he expects the fight to be competitive and up in the air after six, and Kelly himself is saying how will Hopkins react against a natural 160 pounder rather than pointing out real tangible weaknesses. Surely the fight being at 170 ibs will negate Pavlik's metronomic power and render it not as effective? So, with that said, we will be left with a pure boxing match and this is where Hopkins prevails IMO. Not by alot, as Pavlik is no mug himself at boxing, but enough to eek out a decision by virtue of forcing Pavlik to change plans numerous times along the way and exposing each one in his own unimitable way. On that subject of plans, I'm still not convinced Pavlik can switch plans with enough seamless authority to pull this fight out. His change of strategy halfway through second Taylor fight worked but it still doesn't wholly convince that he'll be able to do likewise versus Hopkins. So, if Hopkins can just keep up a similar level of conditioning as he did versus Calzaghe I think he'll take it. He faded against Calzaghe but there is no one in boxing that throws as many punches as him so he should be able to 'bluff' things better this time if Pavlik comes on strong late on and give a better impression of putting on a "boxing clinic" to the judges, with quotation marks or not, depending on your stance regarding B-Hops style. Hopkins UD.
You have to consider the intangibles though...... will Hopkins have gotten into Pavlik's head by the seventh and as a result will Pavlik struggle to win the part of the fight he should win? If Pavlik doesn't get ruffled then his stamina and youth should see him be the strongest in the latter rounds but you never know what might happen in the interim. B-Hop could have him dazed and flustered at that point and open to more B-hop skullduggery.
Pavlik will win this fight. He's gonna force a pace that is too much for Hopkins. You can all ignore what happened in Hopkins's last fight, and even in the Wright fight really. Hopkins is aging and his defense is beginning to fade like his offense did a long time ago. He looked slow and tired late, even in the middle rounds against Joe Calzaghe. Watch the 1st couple rounds in that fight and then watch the mid-late ones, and you will see a fresh, quick and mobile hopkins who was winning turn into a stationary, slow and sitting duck for Calzaghe's to rush in with his slap happy flurries and take over the fight. Hopkins keeps saying Pavlik won't have a plan b or plan c...well he will not need one. He is going to continue to come after hopkins behind his jab and I see Hopkins being able to move and slip and counter early on, but not even that effectively because Pavlik is very skilled himself, but later on he is gonna get worn down and be out worked for a clear UD or MAYBE stopped but that is doubtful now that I'm putting real thought into it.
Hopkins hates 3 things in an opponent :speed,stamina,and a high workrate..........Thats why Calzaghe,young Roy,Jermain,etc...will always be his worst matchups.....Kelly on the other hand,has a good workrate but slower than the others,good but not great stamina,and average hand speed....So to me this is actually going to be intriguing, more so than the Calzaghe fight.......And Bernard does have a sturdy chin,which will be facing a big test .......So if Bernard can control the pace he has a better than average chance, btut if he cannot he loses another ugly fight
im gonna go out on a limp here and say pavlik will put bhop on his ass. probably wont ko him, but i can see a knockdown for both guys. bhop has a good chin, dont get me wrong, but i dont think hes really fought someone with pavliks power and accuracy.
Interesting that John David Jackson said they're working on B-HOP being more busier in this fight and more like his old self.... one which had the perfect balance between defence and attack. I think that's a pipe dream personally but if they're thinking that way is Hopkins confident of being able to stay busier?
Youth and Workrate will more than likely be the difference. It is becoming clear that Nard cant keep up with the world class pace anymore. Though his defensive ability and cageyness keeps him in the fight always. One thing I like about Pavlik is that he just keeps working, doesnt matter if he is discouraged or cant knock the guy out. I will say this..Kelly will not win easily nor does he stop Hopkins, it will be messy and hard fought but in the end I just think Hopkins wont put out enough offense to bag many rounds.
I think Pavlik is gonna make Hopkins legs get old, quickly. Pavlik is gonnna push this fight until Hopkins can't take it anymore. I dont know if there will be a stoppage, but I am damn sure Pavlik will win.
This is going to be interesting and close for about 5 rounds. I'm thrilled to hear Pavlik and Loew saying they expect to take over about the 6th round. I've been saying that Kelly will take over in the mid rounds from day one. It sounds counter-intuitive, but Bernard's best chance is to pull out all the stops from the opening bell, and try to take Kelly out early. If this thing goes past 6 rounds, Hopkins gets KTFO inside 10 rounds.
